Lianhua Technology (002250): Pharmaceutical intermediates drive growth and pesticide business attempts to improve

Lianhua Technology (002250): Pharmaceutical intermediates drive growth and pesticide business attempts to improve
The company’s recent situation The company’s recent performance is better, and has continued to increase by 15% since the beginning of December. We believe it is mainly due to the company’s Yancheng base resumed production probability transmission and the market’s attention to the company’s pharmaceutical intermediate business development. Comment on the construction of new projects driving the growth of pharmaceutical intermediate business.According to the company’s official website information, the company’s annual output of 2135 tons of pharmaceutical intermediates technological transformation project of some products in trial production in 4Q19, the company expects to achieve revenue after all the projects are in production11.7.9 billion yuan, realizing profits and taxes2.700 million.The company plans to invest in Linhai Park, a chemical raw material base in Zhejiang Province9.The company plans to build 800 tons of diamide esters and other 9 projects with an annual output of USD 800 million. The company expects to achieve 重庆耍耍网 annual sales income of RMB 2 billion after reaching the production capacity. At the same time, the company plans to invest USD 500 million to build 20 tons of Wibergeron intermediates in the Chuannan plant in Taizhou.The company expects to achieve an annual sales income of 1 billion yuan after reaching production.We expect the construction of new projects to drive the continuous growth of the pharmaceutical intermediate business. The pesticide intermediate business is expected to improve.At present, the company’s Yancheng base is still temporarily suspended. However, seven major products in Jiangsu Lianhua and Yancheng Lianhua plants have spare capacity in other bases of the company. The spare capacity accounts for nearly 20% of the company’s total capacity in Yancheng base. We expect the capacity to increaseMitigation of 北京桑拿 the impact of the Yancheng base suspension.Thanks to the long-term and stable cooperation relationship between the company and its core customers, dense customers, and careful and timely communication between the company and its core customers during the suspension of production, the company’s cooperation with long-term customers avoids conflicts; meanwhile, according to Jiangsu’s “Regulations on regulating production suspension and rectification of chemical enterprises to resume production”Work Opinions “, adhere to the” one enterprise, one policy “, according to the situation, put an end to” one size fits all “and other policies, we expect the company’s Yancheng base to resume production with a higher probability. The business area of functional chemicals is broad and the development of space barriers.The company’s functional chemicals business covers industrial fungicides, advanced pigment and dye intermediates, personal / household care products, new display material intermediates, battery chemicals, paper chemicals, etc., and forms strategic cooperation with international market leaders to develop in the future.Space power. Estimates suggest that we maintain our 2019/20 profit forecast3.7/6.0 million yuan, the company currently corresponds to the 2019/20 price-earnings ratio of 40.2/24.8 times.Taking into account the evaluation switch and the expansion of the company’s pharmaceutical business, we raise our target price by 19% to 18.5 yuan in the past, there is 15% overall growth space, the target price corresponds to 2020 price-earnings ratio of 29x, maintain outperformed industry rating. Risks: The Yancheng base resumes production lower than expected, the price of o-chlorobenzonitrile drops, and the development of pharmaceutical business is lower than expected.

Fangda Special Steel (600507) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Comments: Production in the third quarter is significantly reduced, and the fourth quarter is expected to return to normal

Fangda Special Steel (600507) 2019 Third Quarterly Report 深圳桑拿网 Comments: Production in the third quarter is significantly reduced, and the fourth quarter is expected to return to normal

The company’s revenue in the first three quarters decreased by 13% quarterly, and net profit attributable to its mother decreased by at least 45%, in line with expectations.

With the resumed production of No. 2 blast furnace, the company’s output has been forecast.

As a long product company with the best cost control and profitability in the industry, the follow-up company’s performance will be committed to the continuous industry.

The company’s three quarterly reported revenue and performance were in line with expectations.

The company achieved operating income of 110 in the first three quarters.

94 ppm, a ten-year average of 13.

21%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 12.

7.7 武汉夜生活网 billion, previously 44 per second.

82%.

Among them, Q3 2019 single quarter realized operating income of 28.

410,000 yuan, 37 in the previous ten years.

48%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

US $ 2.2 billion, with a ten-year average of 77.

99%.

The output fell significantly in the third quarter and is expected to return to normal levels in the fourth quarter.

The company’s steel product sales in the first three quarters of 2019 were 275.

48 at least, down 17 each year.

72%, of which Q3 single-season sales were 68.

47 initially, 39 per year.

57%, down 34.

91%, first of all, the No. 1050 cubic blast furnace with an accident in May this year was in a shutdown state.

However, from October 8 each year, the blast furnace is officially resumed production. It is expected that the company’s performance in the fourth quarter will be limited by production and sales restrictions.

Rising raw material costs have led to a significant decline in the company’s profitability.

Considering that the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises is usually around one month, the average price per ton of iron ore in the third quarter was 741.

50 yuan, up 70% before, 20% higher than the previous month, so the company’s cost climbed significantly in the third quarter.

In addition, the company’s single-quarter ton revenue in the third quarter fell by about 100 yuan from the previous quarter.

In the case of appropriate output and rising costs, the company’s third quarter performance was under pressure.

The profit margin is significantly lower than that of the industry, and the special steel plate provides anti-cyclical capability.

According to our model calculations, the average gross profit per ton of the industry’s threads in the third quarter was about 200 yuan, a continuous decline of more than 800 yuan, while the company’s gross profit per ton in the third quarter was 605 yuan, a decrease of 372 yuan.

Both the increase in profit and the absolute value of gross profit are significantly engaged in the industry.

In addition to common materials, the company is deployed in the field of spring flat steel and automotive leaf springs. During the downward phase of the industry cycle, the anti-interference of the special steel business attempts to support the company’s profitability.

Risk factors: Real estate investment and new start-up exceed expectations; competition in the emerging flat steel market is intensifying.

Investment suggestion: The company is a long product company with the best cost control and profitability in the industry. At the same time, the special steel properties are precisely the company’s ability to resist cycles.

In the downturn of the steel industry cycle, the company’s production limit has come to an end, and it is expected that the performance of subsequent companies will continue.

In the third quarter, due to the double squeeze of the raw material side and its own output side, the company’s performance was obviously under pressure, but the price of converted iron ore dropped significantly. It is expected that the company’s fourth-quarter profit level will usher in a certain improvement.

Taking into account, we will forecast the company’s EPS for 2019-21 by 1.

25/1.

59/1.73 yuan down to 1.

09/1.

18/1.

22 yuan.

Based on a 3x PB estimate in 2019, we lower our target price to 10.

37 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

National Securities (600109): Net profit increased 16% year-on-year better than peers

National Securities (600109): Net profit increased 16% year-on-year better than peers

Investment highlights: Investment banking business expanded in 18 years, but IPO reserves are still abundant.

The differentiated service model featuring active management has steadily increased the scale of special asset management.

Steady investment strategy, achieved high investment returns in 18 years.

Reasonable value range 10.

30-10.

99 yuan, maintain the “excellent than the market” rating.

  Event: National 青岛夜网Gold Securities realized operating income of USD 3.8 billion in 2018, -14% per year; net profit attributable to its mother was USD 1 billion, -16% per year; corresponding to EPS 0.

33 yuan.

In the fourth quarter, the operating income was 13 trillion, ten years + 5%; the net profit attributable to mothers was 3 trillion, ten years-7%.

The larger-than-expected net profit was smaller than that of its peers mainly due to the company’s higher investment income.

No credit impairment loss has been accrued for 18 years, and USD 200 million has been accrued for asset impairment losses.

Brokerage / underwriting / asset management / index / investment income accounted for 26% / 19% / 4% / 15% / 28% of operating income respectively.

  Develop a high customer service system and build core competitiveness.

Realizing brokerage income of 10 million US dollars, -20% per year.

Share-based trading market accounted for 1.

39%, a slight increase in one year, the commission rate is 0.

031%.

As of the end of December, the balance of Liangrong was 5.9 billion and the market share was zero.

78%, the market share increased by 0 in ten years.

04ppt.

The un-decompressed market value balance of stock pledges was 545 million, an increase of + 8% over the previous 17 years; a surplus of US $ 3.7 billion from self-owned finance.

  The scale of investment banking business in 18 years, but IPO reserves are still abundant.

Realized underwriting income of 70,000 yuan, -47% for the whole year.

The scale of underwriting of stocks and bonds is -64% and -15% each year.

The scale of equity underwriting was 13.1 billion; of which 4 were IPOs and 2.5 billion were underwriting; 12 were refinancing and 10.6 billion were underwriting.

The scale of bond underwriting was 29.9 billion yuan; the underwriting scale of corporate bonds and corporate bonds reached 8.3 billion yuan and 2.9 billion yuan respectively.

There are 113 IPO reserve projects, of which 9 are main boards, 9 are small and medium-sized boards, and 16 are GEM boards.

The company registered 137 Bao Dais, ranking 5th.

  The differentiated service model featuring active management has steadily increased the scale of special asset management.
Realize asset management income of 10,000 yuan, -29% per year.

The scale of entrusted management is US $ 142.9 billion, a year-32%; of which the scale of collective asset management is US $ 2.5 billion, which is -73% for decades; the scale of targeted asset management is US $ 109.2 billion, each time -36%;, + 7% for one year.

  Steady investment strategy, achieved high investment returns in 18 years.

Realized net investment income (including fair value) of 11 ‰, + 126% per year.

The company adopts a stable investment strategy, proactively reduces risk appetite, and appropriately expands the scale of bond investment to achieve higher investment returns.

  Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s total net profit for 2019-2021E to be 0.

42, 0.

45, 0.

48 yuan, the absolute net assets are 6 respectively.87, 7.

22, 7.

6杭州桑拿网 0 dollars.

We give it 1 of 2019.

50-1.

60 times PBR, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 10.

30-10.

99 yuan, maintaining the “primary market” rating.

  Risk Warning: The continued downturn in the market will lead to the expansion of business scale and further strengthening of market supervision.

CNOOC Engineering (600583): FY18 performance is in line with expectations; FY19 resumes momentum

CNOOC Engineering (600583): FY18 performance is in line with expectations; FY19 resumes momentum

The 2018 performance was basically in line with expectations. In 2018, CNOOC Engineering’s revenue increased by 8% to US $ 11.1 billion, and net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 84% to approximately 80 million yuan, basically in line with our expectations.

The company’s performance recovered significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Revenue increased by 29%, increased 南宁桑拿 by 43% month-on-month, and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 16%, which increased more than 4 times., The order conversion rate is significantly higher than in the past.

In 2018, the company’s domestic new year single order was US $ 16.4 billion and overseas US $ 1.1 billion. At the end of last year, the company had orders in hand of approximately US $ 18.5 billion.

Development Trend Looking forward to the new overseas orders of 10 billion in 2019, the first big order has been settled.

We mentioned in the report that the rating was upgraded to “recommended” on January 22 this year. It is expected that from 2019, the company’s overseas orders and revenue may achieve a breakthrough. The company is expected to track multiple bids in the Middle East, Canada and Russia.Landed during the year and brought in 南京龙凤网 orders totaling more than 10 billion yuan.

The company announced last night that it had won one of the LNG module construction contracts worth up to $ 5 billion, laying a solid foundation for this year’s overseas order breakthrough.

The company rarely guides 30% high revenue growth, reflecting firm recovery confidence.

The company disclosed that according to the business plan for 2019, it is expected that revenue will increase by more than 30% per year.

This is the first time in many years that the company has redefined a clear revenue guidance, and this guidance exceeds the 25% revenue growth rate currently expected by the market, and our expected growth rate is 36%.

The company plans to have about 19 appendixes of steel processing capacity in 2019, and about 1 ship operation day.

70,000, all increased from last year and restored to 2015 levels.

The company proactively carried out organizational reforms to improve overall operating efficiency.

We remind the market to pay attention to the organizational reform completed by the company last year: 1) The merger of the market development department and the project management department is mainly to improve the synergy of project bidding and operation, to comprehensively identify the returns and risks of the project, and to promote the company to obtain improved orders.Capabilities; 2) According to the two main business lines of construction and installation, two business divisions are formed, which are unifiedly managed separately, and the regional branches are replaced to reduce the internal resource competition and internal consumption.

Earnings forecast At present, our 2019 profit forecast for the company is the highest in the market, maintaining the 19/20 forecast.

Estimates and recommendations Based on the certainty of overseas breakthroughs and firm firm recovery confidence, we estimate the target from 1.

2x 2019 P / B ratio increased to 1.

4 times, raise the target price by 17% to 7.

7 yuan, corresponding to 27% of the upward space.

The company is currently trading at 1.

1x P / B ratio.

Risk oil prices fluctuated sharply, new growth exceeded expectations, and gross margin recovery was slower than expected.

Liuzhou Iron & Steel (601003): Performance in line with expectations

Liuzhou Iron & Steel (601003): Performance in line with expectations

This report reads: The company’s 2019H1 performance is in line with expectations, the volume and price of its profile products have risen, and the overall profitability has rebounded.

Land bias is expected to be weak but can be substituted in the second half of the year. As the leading steel company in Guangxi, the company’s performance will help maintain a high level.

Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.

The company achieved operating income of 228 in the first half of 2019.

7.8 billion, up 1 every year.

30%; net profit attributable to mother 12.

65 trillion, down 38 a year.

00%, of which the net profit attributable to mothers in the second quarter was 8.

8.1 billion, an increase of 129.

64%, the company’s Q2 performance rebounded, as a whole in line with expectations.

Considering the further deterioration of the market’s expectations for macro demand, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is maintained at 1.

25/1.

34/1.

52 yuan, giving the company a 5x 2019 PE estimate and lowering the company’s target price to 6.

25 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

Volume and price of profile products rose in the second quarter, and the company’s profitability rebounded.

In the second quarter of 2019, the company’s small material sales were 180 inches, an increase of more than 17.

80%.

In the second quarter of 2019, the average sales price of the company’s small materials was 3,567 yuan / ton, surpassing the increase of 4.

07%.

The gross profit per ton of steel of the company in Q2 2019 was 756 yuan / ton (excluding billet), which corresponds to a net profit of 404 yuan / ton per ton of steel, which increased by 350 yuan / ton and 181 yuan / ton respectively from the previous quarter.

It is expected that steel demand will be weak in the second half of the year but can still exist, and the company’s performance is expected to remain stable.

R & D expenses continued to increase, and operating cash flow increased significantly.

The company’s R & D expenses for the first half of 2019 were 5.

640,000 yuan, an increase of 111 compared with 2018.

20%, reflecting the company’s determination to enhance innovation, pursue product quality and optimize product structure.

As the company increased the proportion of bills payable for purchases, the company’s operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2019 was 27.

34 trillion, a significant increase of 1771 over the same period in 2018.

64%.

Total land gains, leading performance of regional steel companies maintained a high level.

Real estate inventory is at a low level and sales are slow. We do not expect a rapid decline in land demand. In the second half of the year, downstream demand is generally weak but can be replaced.

As the leading steel company in Guangxi Province, the company has strong steel demand in the province, and the company’s performance 四川耍耍网 has maintained a good level.

Risk warning: the macro economy is accelerating to decline; the supply side rises more than expected.

Financial stocks lifted this year to welcome small peak banks and brokerages

Financial stocks lifted this year to welcome small peak banks and brokerages

Original title: The lifting of financial stocks this year welcomes Xiaofeng Bank shares and brokerage stocks, which account for nearly 80%. Source: Securities Daily newspaper reporter Su Xiangyu The lifting of bans on circulating stocks often leads to pressure. Therefore, lifting stocks has been a hot spot in the market.

So, in 2020, which financial stocks will usher in lifting the ban, and what percentage of lifting stocks will affect it?

Therefore, “Securities Daily” reporter is now sorting out the financial stocks lifted in 2020 for investors’ reference.

  According to the statistics of the “Securities Daily” reporter, in 2020, the market value of financial stocks lifting of the ban (calculated on the closing price on January 6) totaled 493.5 billion yuan, of which 14 bank stocks had a market value of $ 193.1 billion, accounting for 39.

1%; the market value of 12 securities companies’ shares lifted reached 188.8 billion, accounting for 38.

3%.

This year, bank stocks and brokerage stocks together accounted for nearly 80淡水桑拿网% of the financial stocks’ market value.

  From the perspective of the types of banned stocks, the banned stocks in 2020 are mainly the initial stocks of restricted stocks issued by private shareholders and the placement of shares by targeted additional issuance institutions. Among them, the market value of the banned stocks of initial stocks of restricted stocks reached 288.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 58% of the market value of financial stocks;The market value of the ban on the issuance of shares by additional institutions has reached 112.7 billion, accounting for 23%.

Other types of shares are relatively small.

  A person in charge of equity investment in an insurance company told a reporter of the Securities Daily that a large proportion of listed companies ‘distributions lifted the contradiction and formed short-term effects, but in the medium and long term, the value of individual stocks after the test of lifting the ban may become more reasonable.Medium-, high-growth, low-estimation bank stocks are still the allocation of insurance capital, and the focus is on.

  Of the 26 securities firms, bank shares will welcome the lifting of the ban, accounting for 77% of financial shares. Among the financial shares lifting the ban this year, bank shares have the most market value.

  According to a reporter from the Securities Daily, in 2020, 14 bank shares will be lifted, including Postal Savings Bank, Yunong Commercial Bank, Zhejiang Commercial Bank, Bank of Beijing, Pudong Development Bank, Qingnong Commercial Bank, Industrial Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Zijin.Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, Bank of Shanghai, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Xi’an, Bank of Qingdao.

  Based on the closing price on January 6, the Bank of China’s Bank of China in 2020 has the highest market value of lifting the ban, reaching 442.

2 trillion; Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank followed closely, reaching 307.

500 million yuan; Zhejiang Commercial Bank ranked third with 213.

200 million yuan.

The Bank of Beijing, SPD Bank, Qingnong Commercial Bank, and Industrial Bank also approached a market value of more than 10 billion, respectively, at 166.

200 million, 157.

300 million, 154.

300 million, 113.

400 million yuan.

Other banks are below 10 billion yuan.

  The 12 brokerage shares that will be lifted in 2020 are China Galaxy, Minmetals Capital, Zhejiang Merchants Securities, Hongta Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, Caitong Securities, Huaxin Stock, Hualin Securities, Zhongyuan Securities, Guoyuan Securities, China SecuritiesThe investment capital, Oriental Securities, is calculated based on the closing price on January 6, and the market value of the lifting of the ban is 626 respectively.

100 million, 318.

300 million, 234.

600 million, 186.

300 million, 140.

0 billion, 136.

0 billion, 80.

0 billion, 71.

700 million, 48.

700 million, 32.

0 billion, 7.

800 million, 6.

400 million yuan.
  On the whole, these 26 securities companies have a total market capitalization of 391.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 77% of the market value of financial stocks.

In addition to the lifting of the ban on individual stocks in these two major industry segments, financial stocks such as PetroChina Capital, South China Futures, and Ruida Futures will also face lifting of the ban this year.

  From the perspective of the main types of financial stock lifting this year, 60% of the original banned stocks of the restricted stocks were sold.For a long time, the first lifting of the ban on stocks has usually had an impact on prolonging the impact, especially the partial increase before the lifting of the ban penetrates individual stocks. After a large proportion of lifting the ban, the pressure on the pressure is even greater.

  For example, PICC, an insurance stock, entered the A-share market on November 16, 2018. At the beginning of its listing, PICC received 5 daily limit boards, and then went through a round of adjustments.

In November 2019, the PICC entered a period of lifting the ban, which continued to fall for 9 consecutive days and gradually decreased by 18.

62%.

As of January 6, PICC closed at 7.

68 yuan / share.

  For another example, on January 3, 2020, Zijin Bank’s 22.

07 billion shares were lifted, accounting for 60% of the total share capital.

30%, accounting for 85% of outstanding shares.

77%, the lifting of the ban involved 387 shareholders.

With the continued decline after the lifting of the ban, the closing of January 6th, Zijin Bank is expected to close at 5.

38 yuan, compared with November last year.

The high of 7 yuan dropped by half.

  It is worth mentioning that the scale of shareholder reductions does not exactly correspond to the peak of lifting the ban, which means that reductions and liftings do not necessarily occur simultaneously, so lifting the bans does not necessarily lead to large-scale reductions.

  China Merchants Securities pointed out that the pressure to reduce holdings caused by the lifting of the ban is more likely to be concentrated on some stocks, the proportion of equity pledges is high, and shareholders of companies with poor cash flow have pressure to reduce holdings; equity investment institutions, shareholders who have more income from lifting the ban will have more incentive to reduce their holdings.
However, considering that the beginning of the year is a period for the layout of some medium and long-term institutional investors, the entry of incremental funds can hedge the reduction in holdings brought by the lifting of the ban to a certain extent, so there is no excessive occupation in the total.

  Similarly, Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said that the initial ban and the issuance of restricted shares for sale are to increase the supply of stocks in the market, which will impact the liquidity of the market in the short term, but at the same time, the market situation still needs to be analyzed in detail.
If the restricted stocks are lifted, the market sentiment is high, and investors are optimistic about the stocks lifted, the capital continues to flow in and is expected to continue to rise.

In general, due to the reduction in the number of bans on the issuance of restricted shares, the impact on individual stock prices is relatively obvious.

New Hope (000876) 2019 Interim Report Review: Highly Proliferating Pigs with Biological Assets or Rapid Expansion

New Hope (000876) 2019 Interim Report Review: Highly Proliferating Pigs with Biological Assets 北京夜生活网 or Rapid Expansion

Consumable biological assets have increased rapidly. It is estimated that the number of pigs slaughtered in 2019 is expected to reach 3.3-3.5 million heads.

In addition, productive biological assets, fixed assets and construction in progress are all increasing rapidly, and it is expected that the number of listings in 2020 will continue to increase.

Maintain “Buy” rating and target price of 23.

7 yuan.

The third line bloomed, and the profit of 19H1 increased by 85%.

The company released its semi-annual report for 2019.

In the first half of the year, revenue reached 35.3 billion (same increase of 11%).

5%) and a profit of 15.

600 million (same increase of 85%).

The performance was in line with expectations.

The company’s revenue growth in the first half was mainly due to the contribution from the feed business and poultry industry.

Among them, the feed business was affected by sales growth (876 attachments, an increase of 13).

7%) to achieve revenue of 192.

600 million (same increase of 7.

8%), the poultry industry was driven by rising poultry prices to achieve revenue 97.

9 trillion (same increase of 17.

3%).

The main categories of the company’s high profit growth in the first half of the year are: 1) the rise in chicken prices has driven the company’s poultry chain business to increase profits; 2) the poultry and aquatic products sales have increased, and the feed gross profit rate has improved, driving the company’s feed business profits to increase; 3) Rising pig prices drove the company’s pig breeding business investment to narrow.

The company produced 1.34 million live pigs in the first half of the year, and the average head is expected to be 100-110 yuan.

In the first half of the year, the hog breeding business still needed to further reduce the costs of newly-built pig farms and the increase in raising costs.

We estimate that the company’s average breeding cost in the first half of the year is about 15-15.

5 yuan / kg, of which Q2 cost has now improved month-on-month.

4) During the same period in the first half of 2018, 3.
.

500 million assets impairment loss.

Biological assets have increased rapidly, and the scale of pig production may have expanded rapidly.

By the end of the first half of the year, the company had achieved over 1.8 million piglets and fattening pigs through the placement of piglets from its own production and outsourcing, laying a substitute foundation for achieving the goal of expanding its production.

At the same time, the company’s consumable biological assets increased by approximately 73% to 2.4 billion yuan.

We each estimate that the company’s slaughter volume in 2019 is expected to reach 3.3-3.5 million heads.

In addition, the company’s productive biological assets increased by 12% and 27% to 5.

900 million.

With reference to the situation of other livestock listed companies, we estimate that the company’s breeding pig inventory at the end of the second quarter of 2019 has reached 100,000 to 150,000 heads, a 60% -70% increase from the end of the first quarter.

At the same time, the company’s fixed assets and construction in progress have maintained rapid growth (both increased by 19% and 90% respectively), which is expected to escort the company to achieve rapid growth in the number of live pigs in 2020.

In the large-scale livestock and poultry cycle, earnings growth is expected to continue.

The pig price has entered an upward phase, the company’s production capacity has accelerated, and the profit elasticity of the pig business has to be released quarterly.

At the same time, the pork gap is expected to boost poultry prices. As the 佛山桑拿网 domestic meat and poultry leader and poultry feed leader, its feed and poultry industry profits are also expected to rise at a high level.

Risk factors: epidemic risk, pig price rises less than expected, slaughter volume not expected, raw material price fluctuations, food safety incidents.

Investment suggestion: Maintain 2019/20/21 net profit forecast of US $ 3.4 / 66 / 6.2 billion, of which the estimated profit of agriculture and animal husbandry is approximately US $ 1.749 / 4.6 billion.
With reference to the estimated levels and historical estimates of interbank listed companies, the company’s 2020 profit segment is estimated.
Maintain target price of 23.

7 yuan (corresponding to 15 times PE), maintain “Buy” rating.

Fuling mustard (002507): improvement of fundamentals, grasp of estimated repair

Fuling mustard (002507): improvement of fundamentals, grasp of estimated repair

The growth rate of mustard mustard Q3 income / operating profit / attribution net profit was 8% / 2% /-7%, the income statement performance slightly exceeded market expectations, advance receipts fell under a high base, the overall statement of the report is consistent with the channel caliber.

Q3 gross profit margin was strengthened by cost dividends, and the increase in sales expense ratio under high channel and brand expenses.

Considering that the forecast of foreign exchange dealers has gradually turned positive and the channel inventory has fallen, we judge that the company’s fundamentals have basically stabilized and the channel adjustment is nearing completion.

Although the terminal demand is still severely weak, the company is responding to the poor market environment and is exerting stronger subjective initiative, research and development, and market follow-up.

At present, it is estimated that relative to the overall condiment sector, the company’s ROE level is definitely at a discount, and it is close to the bottom of historical forecasts. It has a certain margin of safety. It is recommended to pay attention to the oversold opportunity. We slightly adjust the EPS in 19-20 to 0.

86, 0.

96 (previous time 0.

9, 1.

02), considering the evaluation switch, raise the target price to 27 yuan (corresponding to 28X next year), and maintain the “prudential recommendation-A” rating.

The growth rate of mustard mustard Q3 revenue / operating profit / attribution net profit was 8% / 2% /-7%, total revenue for the first three quarters of 201916.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 3 in ten years.

8%, operating profit 6.

110,000 yuan, an increase of 3.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 5.

180,000 yuan, down 1.

0%.

Of which 2019Q3 income was 5.

180,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.

6%, operating profit 2.

390,000 yuan, an increase of 2.

2%, net profit attributable to mother 2.
.

30,000 yuan, down 6.

8%.

Q3 cash back 6.

1.4 billion, down 1 year.

3%, mainly due to the high base effect last year.

Net operating cash flow 2.

1 trillion, a reduction of 0 a year ago.

500 million.

The increase was mainly due to the increase in promotion and transportation fees paid in this period.

Cost dividend guarantees increased gross profit and sales expenses continued to increase.

Under the cost dividend, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 2 in 19Q3.

From 7% to 60%, the sales expenses increase by 33 million each year, and the expense ratio increases by 5.

7% to 13.

7%, which is expected to be related to channel fission, brand sponsorship and other supplements.

It is worth mentioning that the company’s R & D investment has increased significantly this year, which is expected to be related to the acceleration of new product development.

The operating profit margin of Q3 increased slightly, but due to the high base of external operating income, the net profit attributable to mothers increased negatively.
Fundamentals have stabilized, and seeds of optimism are germinating.
This year’s Q3 accounts received in advance1.

3 billion, a reduction of 55 million a year, assuming that the amount of advance receipts is flat every year, and the income is broken down by a small number, which is consistent with our channel tracking caliber.

According to grassroots analysis feedback, although the introduction of Q3 is weak, the channel inventory has fallen to a reasonable level, and we believe that the merchants have resumed positive growth.

Although the company performed mediocrely in terms of performance and performance from the second quarter to the third quarter, we see that the company as a whole shows an attempt, the fundamental risk factor “inventory level”, and the potential risk factor “estimate” mean is reasonable and higherHigh investment in market construction is good for future development, and we suggest that at this point, the company can be more optimistic.

Adjust for new issues, pay attention to oversold opportunities, and maintain the level of “Prudent Recommendation-A”.

The pickled mustard Q3 income statement performed slightly better than market expectations. Considering the sales situation and inventory level, we judge that the company’s fundamentals are basically stable and the channel adjustment is nearing completion. Although the terminal demand is still weak, the company is responding to the poor market environment and is playing a more important role.Strong subjective initiative, research and development, and market development are 成都桑拿网 good for follow-up efforts to maintain long-term stable growth.

At present, relative to the overall condiment sector, the company’s ROE level is definitely discounted, and it is close to the bottom of historical estimates, which has a certain safety margin.

Let’s slightly adjust the EPS for 19-20 to 0.

86, 0.

96 (previous time 0.

9, 1.

02), considering the evaluation switch, raise the target price to 27 yuan (corresponding to 28X next year), and maintain the “prudential recommendation-A” rating.

Risk warning: economic downturn consumption weakens, upstream costs fluctuate

Ping An of China (601318): The overall financial indicators are bright, the number of agents and income are potential concerns

Ping An of China (601318): The overall financial indicators are bright, the number of agents and income are potential concerns

Investment points “Agent + Full Ecology” traffic and frequency of customer introduction rate slightly shifted, the group’s overall financial indicators are expected.

  1.

Ping An’s current integrated financial model relies on the “flow + frequency” of agents and the five major ecosystems. In the first half of 2019, the Group’s new customers in 2009 decreased gradually.

2%, of which 33.

8% comes from the five major ecology.

Customer operations continued to advance, and the number of customers holding multiple accounts increased by 0 compared to the initial period.

8 points to 35.

4%, the average number of passengers per contract increased by 2% to 2.

58, the average operating profit of passengers reached 340 yuan, exceeding the growth rate of 21%.

  2.

Driven by investment and budget policies, Ping An’s net profit performance was dazzling, and life insurance operating profit was slightly overestimated.

Ping An’s 2019H return to mother’s net profit increased by 67 led by life insurance (108% year-on-year) and property insurance (yoy101%).

3% to 977 ppm, of which other assets management sector due to the weakening of the macro economy, the next part of assets will be impaired (2019H impairment 31).

32 trillion in the same period last year 2.

8.5 billion), the first half of the net profit from zero.

83%, the technology sector increased by 42 due to expenditure.

45% increase net profit down 33.

35% to 2.8 billion yuan.

After correcting short-term factors, the operating profit of the group’s mother company increased by 23.

8% to 734.

600 million, exceeding market expectations.

However, we found that even considering the increase in tax-free share of life insurance investment income in the first half of the year and the 18-year deferral effect, the operating profit of the life insurance sector.

The tax rate of 78% is still low. If the tax rate is adjusted to a level that we consider reasonable to be 18%, the actual growth rate of opat in the first half of the year should be 26.

About 5%, we did the same for property and casualty insurance, and finally concluded that the Group’s actual return to operating profit growth in the first half of the group was about 14.

98%.

  3.

The embedded value is in line with expectations, and the Group’s dividends predict operating profit.

At the end of June 2019, the Ping An Group’s net assets and embedded value attributable to mothers increased by 12 earlier.

3% and 11.

05%, group roev11.

2%, both in line with expectations.

The initial dividend is 18 of the group’s operating profit after tax.

At 6%, the Ping An Group’s dividend benchmark since 2018 has been targeted at operating profit which has improved the stability of investors’ expectations.

  Life insurance NBV4杭州夜网.

The 7% growth rate is in line with expectations, but the decline in the number of agents and income is a potential concern.

  1.

Ping An Life Insurance 2019H 4.

The 7% NBV growth rate was higher than the same period last year.2%, but 6.
.

  3% formaldehyde 1.

5pct, as expected.

The growth rate of NBV in the life insurance core agent channel was 2 in the first half of the year.

5%, and the main driving force comes from the value rate of a single product, long-term protection, value rate of short-term storage and long-term storage increased by 2 respectively.

3, 8.

4 and 19.

5 points.

  2.

The first half of Ping An’s agent data is a potential concern.

First, the average monthly number of agents dropped by 5.

5% to 1.23 million, followed by a decline in agent income by 3.

7% to 6617 yuan, taking into account the activity rate for three years.

  The decline of 2pct was 76 in the first half of 2019.

30,000 people, down 10 every year.

2%, the decline in the number of agents is the long-term protection of new orders in the first half of the additional 8.

5% preliminary; we expect that Ping An will make some adjustments to its main body, product system and training system in the second half of the year.

  3.

Because Ping An’s measurement of the cost of effective business capital is based on the size of the company rather than the policy scale, the earlier dispersion effect in the data is stronger. The dispersion effect in 2019H is 80bp lower than in 2018H, and the contribution of new business to the remaining margin slightly decreases;In addition, the operational deviation of half-year life insurance has been reduced, which has reduced the remaining marginal growth rate and roev.

16pct and 1.

67 points.

Affected by the initiative to increase the dividend insurance and universal insurance account settlement interest rates, the Ping An interest margin income in the first half of the year decreased by 41.

8%, and growth is expected to resume from 2020.

  The property insurance commission rate has dropped significantly, and the optimization of the actual tax rate has significantly increased thick net profit.

In the first half of the year, Ping An Property & Casualty increased its original premiums for three years.

7% to 1305 ppm, of which auto insurance increased by 9%, while the original premium of the second largest insurance credit insurance decreased by 5.

6% to 153 ppm; affected by the integration of the reporting bank and regulatory approval to the responsible person, the commission rate of 2019H P & C insurance is only 17.
.

02%, much lower than 24 in the same period last year.

98%, some of the expenses were tampered with to the management fee subjects, the overall expense ratio fell by 1%, the decline in the handling fee rate and the actual tax rate of the financial insurance business in the first half of the year was only 6.
.

4%, a substantial increase in net profit increased by 100.

8% to 1.18 million yuan.

  Investment returns have been optimized on a sequential basis, and long-term financial investments have accelerated.

The Group’s 2019H net investment yield and total investment yield are 4 respectively.

5% and 5.

5%, previously Q1 3.
.

9% and 5.
1%, we believe that Ping An ‘s Q2 investment yield has bucked the trend and concluded that when Ping An calculates the investment yield, Ping An only treats the annual deposit index, bond coupons and investment property rental income on an annualized basis.The coupon income of 2019Q2 may increase; 2.

Ping An continued to increase long-term financial investments. Until now, Ping An has raised a total of 12 companies. The current market value of its shares is about 210 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of total stock investments.And real estate stocks, this year’s new Jinmao brand.

We are optimistic about Ping An’s subsequent developments in asset and liability duration gap, cost coverage and cash flow.

  In summary, in the first half of the year, Ping An’s overall financial data performed well under the two benefits of investment income and returns. However, the agent of the core life insurance business is a potential worry. I believe that Ping An’s ability to evolve and adjust itself is still a good track for life insuranceGood choice.
The group’s ev growth rate is expected to be 18 at the beginning of the year.

78%, the current pev is 1.

34 times, continue to maintain the BUY rating.

  Risk reminder: The equity market has fallen sharply, the long-term risk-free rate of return has continued to fall sharply, and the growth rate of new single premiums has not been as expected.

Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) Annual Report Comments: Fast-freezing growth exceeds expectations.

Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) Annual Report Comments: Fast-freezing growth exceeds expectations.

In 19Q1, the revenue grew rapidly, and it is expected that quick-frozen products will be the main growth force in revenue in 1825.

3.7 billion / + 15.

89%; net 南京夜生活网 profit attributable to mother 3.

8.4 billion / + 12.

79%, in line with expectations, rising mooncakes, quick-frozen volume and prices all drove faster revenue growth, and price increases led to a 1% increase in gross profit margin.

51pct to 54.

66%, expansion in other places, increase in labor costs slightly drag on profit margins.

1Q1 income 5.

33 billion / + 19.

78%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

4.6 billion / + 17.

95%.

The revenue growth rate in 19Q1 exceeded expectations, which is expected to be mainly due to the price increase effect of 18-year frozen food and the increase in production capacity.

The company continues to expand investment in research and development, new product development, and expansion of product advantages. With the completion of Xiangtan and Meizhou factories, capacity expansion and market expansion drive growth.

Equity incentives can help stimulate employee vitality and expand the foundation for long-term development.

Expected EPS1 in 19-21.

13/1.

49/1.

83 yuan with a target price of 35.

66-36.

80 yuan to maintain the overweight level.

18-year moon cakes, quick-frozen volume and price all rise. It is estimated that the growth trend of 19Q1 quick-freeze will continue for 18 years. The company has expanded the development of new products (R & D expenses 48.47 million / + 158%), and the core products’ leading advantages have been consolidated.

Moon cake series 1.

16 positive / + 10.

29%, income 10.

3.8 billion / + 15.

67%, unit price is 90.

23 yuan (per kilogram) / + 5.

22%, gross margin 63.

22% / + 1.

7pct, 18-year quick-freezing supplement production line, yield 2.

06 positive / +22.

89%, income 4.

100 million / + 29.

86%, unit price 20.

23 yuan (per Kg) / + 7.

78%, gross margin 36.

92% / + 4.04 points.

Income from products such as wax flavor 4.

600 million / + 16.

34%, catering business income 6.

01 billion / + 7.

46%.

In 18, the company expanded 2 catering outlets in Guangzhou and purchased two new properties. In 19 years, the Shenzhen store strived to open.

19Q1 is the low season for moon cakes. We expect the price increase effect of frozen foods and the increase in production capacity to continue, which will be the main revenue growth driver.

Integrate marketing resources, expand market promotion, and capacity expansion brings medium- and long-term growth space. In March 19, the company announced that it would change its IPO fundraising and investment projects, and it would raise the amount of funds1.

The 3.9 billion yuan was transferred to the construction of the Xiangtan plant. The company expects that the annual production capacity of moon cakes / fillings in the first phase will not be less than zero.

2/0.

In June, it will be put into use before December 20; the savory workshop originally planned to be built in Guangzhou was transferred to the Meizhou plant, and capacity expansion brings long-term growth space.

The company employs third-party organizations to conduct in-depth research on the national market, reposition and sort out various product lines, hire professionals, set up a food marketing center, integrate marketing resources, and improve the sales network to release and digest the foundation for increasing production capacity.

Distribution income for 18 years13.

2.9 billion / + 20.

25% faster than direct sales (11.

8 billion / + 11.

05%), the dealer development is very effective.

Extra-provincial income 3.

8.8 billion / + 54%, online marketing investment, revenue 3.

100 million / + 48%, the main force for growth outside the province.

Product advantages are prominent, capacity release + expansion in different places is clear and clear the medium and long-term development path, maintaining the holdings of the company to expand research and development expansion, new product development, leading integration of core moon cake products, quick-freezing and other products gradually develop large-scale, strong brand strength.

18-year moon cake + quick-frozen crop 3.

22 years, 2020 Xiangtan (Phase 1 moon cake + filling capacity 0.

8 samples), Meizhou (planned production capacity) 1.

6Aim) The factory is expected to be completed, the company is expected to dig deeper into Guangdong Province, expand the national market, and the growth path is clear.

Equity incentives help motivate employees.

EPS1 was originally expected in 19-20 years.

05/1.

49 yuan, faster-than-expected growth in frozen capacity, adjusted to EPS1 in 19-21.

13/1.

49/1.

83 yuan, the average PE of a comparable food / catering company in 19 years is 30/34 times, giving the company’s food / catering 31-32 / 34-35 times PE in 19 years, with a total target market value of 14.1-4149 billion and a target price of 35.

66-36.

80 yuan to maintain overweight.

Risk reminder: the progress of production capacity development has exceeded expectations, and the development of different markets is not smooth.