Ping An of China (601318): The overall financial indicators are bright, the number of agents and income are potential concerns
Investment points “Agent + Full Ecology” traffic and frequency of customer introduction rate slightly shifted, the group’s overall financial indicators are expected.
Ping An’s current integrated financial model relies on the “flow + frequency” of agents and the five major ecosystems. In the first half of 2019, the Group’s new customers in 2009 decreased gradually.
2%, of which 33.
8% comes from the five major ecology.
Customer operations continued to advance, and the number of customers holding multiple accounts increased by 0 compared to the initial period.
8 points to 35.
4%, the average number of passengers per contract increased by 2% to 2.
58, the average operating profit of passengers reached 340 yuan, exceeding the growth rate of 21%.
Driven by investment and budget policies, Ping An’s net profit performance was dazzling, and life insurance operating profit was slightly overestimated.
Ping An’s 2019H return to mother’s net profit increased by 67 led by life insurance (108% year-on-year) and property insurance (yoy101%).
3% to 977 ppm, of which other assets management sector due to the weakening of the macro economy, the next part of assets will be impaired (2019H impairment 31).
32 trillion in the same period last year 2.
8.5 billion), the first half of the net profit from zero.
83%, the technology sector increased by 42 due to expenditure.
45% increase net profit down 33.
35% to 2.8 billion yuan.
After correcting short-term factors, the operating profit of the group’s mother company increased by 23.
8% to 734.
600 million, exceeding market expectations.
However, we found that even considering the increase in tax-free share of life insurance investment income in the first half of the year and the 18-year deferral effect, the operating profit of the life insurance sector.
The tax rate of 78% is still low. If the tax rate is adjusted to a level that we consider reasonable to be 18%, the actual growth rate of opat in the first half of the year should be 26.
About 5%, we did the same for property and casualty insurance, and finally concluded that the Group’s actual return to operating profit growth in the first half of the group was about 14.
The embedded value is in line with expectations, and the Group’s dividends predict operating profit.
At the end of June 2019, the Ping An Group’s net assets and embedded value attributable to mothers increased by 12 earlier.
3% and 11.
05%, group roev11.
2%, both in line with expectations.
The initial dividend is 18 of the group’s operating profit after tax.
At 6%, the Ping An Group’s dividend benchmark since 2018 has been targeted at operating profit which has improved the stability of investors’ expectations.
Life insurance NBV4杭州夜网.
The 7% growth rate is in line with expectations, but the decline in the number of agents and income is a potential concern.
Ping An Life Insurance 2019H 4.
The 7% NBV growth rate was higher than the same period last year.2%, but 6.
3% formaldehyde 1.
5pct, as expected.
The growth rate of NBV in the life insurance core agent channel was 2 in the first half of the year.
5%, and the main driving force comes from the value rate of a single product, long-term protection, value rate of short-term storage and long-term storage increased by 2 respectively.
4 and 19.
The first half of Ping An’s agent data is a potential concern.
First, the average monthly number of agents dropped by 5.
5% to 1.23 million, followed by a decline in agent income by 3.
7% to 6617 yuan, taking into account the activity rate for three years.
The decline of 2pct was 76 in the first half of 2019.
30,000 people, down 10 every year.
2%, the decline in the number of agents is the long-term protection of new orders in the first half of the additional 8.
5% preliminary; we expect that Ping An will make some adjustments to its main body, product system and training system in the second half of the year.
Because Ping An’s measurement of the cost of effective business capital is based on the size of the company rather than the policy scale, the earlier dispersion effect in the data is stronger. The dispersion effect in 2019H is 80bp lower than in 2018H, and the contribution of new business to the remaining margin slightly decreases;In addition, the operational deviation of half-year life insurance has been reduced, which has reduced the remaining marginal growth rate and roev.
16pct and 1.
Affected by the initiative to increase the dividend insurance and universal insurance account settlement interest rates, the Ping An interest margin income in the first half of the year decreased by 41.
8%, and growth is expected to resume from 2020.
The property insurance commission rate has dropped significantly, and the optimization of the actual tax rate has significantly increased thick net profit.
In the first half of the year, Ping An Property & Casualty increased its original premiums for three years.
7% to 1305 ppm, of which auto insurance increased by 9%, while the original premium of the second largest insurance credit insurance decreased by 5.
6% to 153 ppm; affected by the integration of the reporting bank and regulatory approval to the responsible person, the commission rate of 2019H P & C insurance is only 17.
02%, much lower than 24 in the same period last year.
98%, some of the expenses were tampered with to the management fee subjects, the overall expense ratio fell by 1%, the decline in the handling fee rate and the actual tax rate of the financial insurance business in the first half of the year was only 6.
4%, a substantial increase in net profit increased by 100.
8% to 1.18 million yuan.
Investment returns have been optimized on a sequential basis, and long-term financial investments have accelerated.
The Group’s 2019H net investment yield and total investment yield are 4 respectively.
5% and 5.
5%, previously Q1 3.
9% and 5.
1%, we believe that Ping An ‘s Q2 investment yield has bucked the trend and concluded that when Ping An calculates the investment yield, Ping An only treats the annual deposit index, bond coupons and investment property rental income on an annualized basis.The coupon income of 2019Q2 may increase; 2.
Ping An continued to increase long-term financial investments. Until now, Ping An has raised a total of 12 companies. The current market value of its shares is about 210 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of total stock investments.And real estate stocks, this year’s new Jinmao brand.
We are optimistic about Ping An’s subsequent developments in asset and liability duration gap, cost coverage and cash flow.
In summary, in the first half of the year, Ping An’s overall financial data performed well under the two benefits of investment income and returns. However, the agent of the core life insurance business is a potential worry. I believe that Ping An’s ability to evolve and adjust itself is still a good track for life insuranceGood choice.
The group’s ev growth rate is expected to be 18 at the beginning of the year.
78%, the current pev is 1.
34 times, continue to maintain the BUY rating.
Risk reminder: The equity market has fallen sharply, the long-term risk-free rate of return has continued to fall sharply, and the growth rate of new single premiums has not been as expected.