Guanglianda (002410): slightly lower results expected to increase investment in AI and BIM

Guanglianda (002410): slightly lower results expected to increase investment in AI and BIM

Investment Highlights: Announcement: Guanglianda announced the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved total operating income of 8 in Q3.

35 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

51%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 0.

69 ppm, a decrease of 52 per year.

41%.

The performance was slightly lower than market expectations.

  After Q3’s single-quarter restoration, revenue increased by 17 per year.

07%.

If the influencing factors of cloud advance receipts are restored (assuming that the Q3 single quarter increase in advance receipts are all 北京桑拿洗浴保健cloud-related advance receipts), the total operating income after the restoration is approximately 19.

2.6 billion, an increase of 17 years in the same caliber.

07%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company after the reduction is about 1.
.

$ 5.1 billion, with the same caliber extended by 27 per year.

17%.

  Selling expenses / R & D expenses increased by 42 each year.

27% / 35.

32%, the cost increase is mainly due to the impact of equity incentives and personnel expansion.

In October 2018, Guanglianda’s first additional stock budget and scale stock to the incentive object, 2018?
The related expenses confirmation in 2021 is as follows. Among them, the expenses in 2018 were confirmed in Q4. In 2019, 53.09 million yuan was fully allocated and confirmed in 4 quarters. The first three quarters affected profits by about 40 million yuan.

According to the data at the end of 2018, the total number of employees of the company reached 6,244, with an annual increase of 20% (mainly sales and technical staff).R & D personnel expansion.

  The overall balance sheet was healthy, with receivables / inventories increased by 51 respectively.

20% / 92.

31%, but the turnover rate is within the normal range.

The company’s construction business is still in the incubation period. Receivables / inventory items are growing rapidly, but the turnover rate is normal and the scale is controllable.

Among them, the increase in receivables was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of revenue from major customers.

Receivables have a dedicated team and management system. It is expected that Q4 will strengthen the receivables.

  A fixed increase plan was issued, and the fundraising did not exceed 2.7 billion, mainly in the direction of AI and BIM.

1) Guanglianda ‘s AI capabilities may be underestimated by the market. The current project cost has entered the era of intelligent cost of “automatic collection, intelligent generation, and precise matching”. It has been able to realize automatic calculation, intelligent item opening, intelligent group price, and intelligenceMaterial selection and pricing; the construction sector, based on digital design, implements additional information such as process methods, quotas, and materials to form an intelligent construction information model.

AI capabilities continue to infiltrate the potential of future cost members.

2) BIM has been proven to be the industry direction. Guanglianda smart construction platform adopts an alternative solution and realizes the data connection between China and Taiwan. It has been tried out by Dujia super / first-class builders, and the feedback is good.

  Considering the stable growth of operating cash flow brought by the future cloudification transformation and the broad space of the construction business, we maintain the “Buy” rating.

The continuous transformation of cloudification, the increasing demand for BIM and the development of the entire cycle of construction are the core driving forces for the company’s mid-term growth. Considering that the revenue of cloudification is included in the advance receipts to affect the apparent profit, maintaining the profit forecast unchanged. It is expected that 2019-2021The income is 36.

36天津夜网 , 45.

28 and 60.

19 trillion, the net profit is expected to be 3 in 2019-2021.

94, 5.

39, 8.

US $ 7.7 billion, maintain “Buy” rating.

Blu-ray Development (600466) 2019 Interim Report Review: Doubling Performance Doubles Garbo Listing Immediately

Blu-ray Development (600466) 2019 Interim Report Review: Doubling Performance Doubles Garbo Listing Immediately
The revenue of 19H1 was more than two years, and the performance reached 105%. The estimated increase in the overseas listing of Jiabao Property was 19H1.4 ‰, +81 a year.5%; net profit attributable to mother 12.700 million, ten years +104.5%; realized basic profit income of 0.37 yuan / share, previously +164.2%; gross margin and net profit attributable to mothers are 29.4% and 8.7%, -3 from the previous year.0pct and +1.0 points; three expense ratios total 11.7%, higher than -4.7 points.Return on net assets of the company 6.9%, ten years +2.8 points.The scale of the company’s carry-over has greatly increased, the economies of scale have been demonstrated, and its profitability has continued to improve.In the property management and pharmaceutical business, Garbo shares achieved revenue in 19H1.3 ‰, one year + 59%, net profit 1.9 megabytes, + 108% a year, with a management area of over 6,000 GM. 2019 China’s top 100 property service companies ranked 11th. Considering that the property management industry enjoys a high valuation premium, the subsequent Jiabao H shares listing is expected to increaseOverall company estimates.Dikang Pharmaceutical achieved revenue in 19H14.800 million, net profit 0.600 million.As of the end of 19H1, the company’s advance receipts reached 616.600 million, +20 at the end of the previous 18 years.9%, covering 18 years of real estate revenue2.16 times, fully guarantee the sustainability of subsequent performance release. 19H1 sales of 46.5 billion, more than + 12%, slow growth, sales in the three major regions exceeded 10 billion 19H1, the company achieved sales of 465.3 ‰, +12 per year.5%, the equity sales amount is 349.500 million.Among them, Chengdu, East China, Central China, Yunnan and Chongqing, Beijing, and South China accounted for 22 respectively.9%, 24.6%, 25.6%, 8.8%, 9.1%, 9.0%, compared with -21 in 18H1.3pct, + 16.9pct, + 6.1pct, -11.2pct, +4.9pct, +4.6 points.Among them, East China, Central China, and Chengdu all had sales exceeding 10 billion yuan; the sales area was 514.80,000 countries, +34 per year.0%.In terms of investment, 483 started in 19H1.30,000 countries, completed 127.1 universal, at least +6.3%, +21.8%. Considering that the company is actively replenishing the land, it is expected that the new start-up in 19 years will still be strong. The high growth of new start-up and completion will promote the steady and high growth of the company’s sales and settlement. In 19H1, the value of land acquisition was 80 billion yuan, the initial increase in soil reserves, smooth financing, and controllable leverage. In 19H1, the company acquired land resources through acquisition and merger, cooperative development, industrial land acquisition, bidding, auction and other methods to acquire land resources and add land.The total construction area of the reserve is approximately 6.78 million square meters, corresponding to a value of 80 billion yuan. The land sales area ratio is 132%, and the inventory is actively replenished. In terms of energy levels, the new first-tier and second-tier cities account for 62% of the new soil reserves.The strong third-tier cities accounted for 38%; in terms of regions, Central China, East China, Chengdu, Yunnan, Chongqing, Beijing, and South China accounted for 22%, 17%, 13%, 25%, 19%, and 南京桑拿网 5%, respectively.At the end of 19H1, the exploration company had approximately 2,505 GM of soil reserves, which could cover 18 years of sales area3.1 time, the soil reserves gradually thickened.At the end of 19H1, the asset mortgage injection was 81.3% a year -1.6pct, net debt price 109.4%, five years -5.7pct, actively take the land to maintain financial stability; the report merged, the company newly obtained 20 trillion private placement debt approval; completed 7.500 million US dollars of bonds, 1.1 billion of corporate bonds issued, smooth financing channels, and continued to optimize the debt structure. Investment suggestion: Double the performance ahead of time, and Garbo will be listed soon. Maintain “Strong Push” rating.In 2018, the company’s performance increased by 63%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin both increased. Diversified financing channels are expected to promote smooth financing. The overseas listing of its subsidiary Jiabao shares has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Dikang Pharmaceutical plans to allocate H shares.Delisting, of which Jiabao’s overseas listing will increase the valuation.We maintain our 2019-21 earnings forecast at 1.11, 1.68, 2.10 yuan, corresponding to 19 and 20 years of PE are 5 respectively.5 times and 3.Six times, 18A and 19E have dividend yields of 4, respectively.3%, 6.4%, maintain target price of 8.85 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level. Risk reminder: Real estate market sales fell faster than expected and financing policies tightened more than expected

IDC industry Hengping: Who gets up early to catch up late?

Who has a father who doesn’t rely on himself?

IDC industry Hengping: Who gets up early to catch up late?
Who has a father who doesn’t rely on himself?

Who gets up early and catches up late?
Who has a father who doesn’t rely on himself?
IDC Industry Hengping: Halo New Network, Dataport, Baoxin Software, Dr.
Peng, Enterprise WeChat, Jinshan, etc. have extended tolerances on server resources, indicating that the investment in cloud infrastructure in these regions is still significantly insufficient.

  Driven by the development of downstream industries such as 5G, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, IDCs (data centers) as upstream infrastructure continue to benefit, and may soon enter the fast track for expansion.

  What is the business model of this industry?

How are the main players competing?

This article will make a comparative study of four A-share listed companies: Halo New Network (300383).

SZ), Dataport (603881.

SH), Baoxin Software (600845.

SH) and Dr. Peng (600804.

SH).

  Speaking of which, Feng Yunjun is just as kind as seeing an old friend, it is simply “if you have friends from afar, you will be stunned.”

  Come here, let’s first recall Feng Yunjun’s “old friends”: Halo New Network: Multiple mergers and acquisitions supporting shareholders to reduce their holdings, “A good show: reducing holdings to cash out, mergers and acquisitions under the” two-wheel drive “”Halo New Network and Huge Goodwill”; Dr. Peng: Contradictions in the retreat of executives in business restructuring, “Dr. Peng: Achievements and personnel turmoil together, and the benefits are the same as the reduction of holdings”, which considers the details of financial and capital operationsanalysis.
  Of course, the market value of Fengyun is an independent third party that is relatively rare in China. The core norm of research attitude is to seek truth from facts. Some say good, good, and bad, and of course it is impossible to be a routine man.There are also many good comrades who have invested in value. Some Baoxin software has inspirational stories that dad can’t fight without their own efforts. “You can fight with dad, but you need to work hard with Baoxin software: Office software services during the epidemic.”Enterprise Hengping.

  Therefore, among the four Hengping companies selected here, Feng Yunjun has thoroughly researched three of them. In fact, it is basically clear. It is not necessary to talk about whether it is a sister-in-law or a horse. It is useless to say more.

The data port that has not been researched can also be approximated by the “our stock” big data rating system developed by the market value situation.

  (The picture comes from the market capitalization Fengyunwugu big data system) Therefore, here is another angle to enter the hand: focus on research and comparison of the four companies’ IDC business scale, business model, contract costs, etc., and will be carried out in the financial analysis sectionThe nature of the comparison, so that you have a clear understanding of the third-party IDC industry.

  I. Introduction to IDC IDC (Internet Data Center) is an Internet data center. It is a computer room that centrally stores computing, storage, and network equipment. It provides customers with basic services such as server hosting and resource rental, as well as value-added services.

  As the core infrastructure that supports the efficient and stable operation of the information technology industry, the iteration of technology, the growth of traffic and data continue to place higher requirements on the computing, storage, and transmission capabilities of IDC.

  According to statistics from the IDC circle, the global IDC business market size in 2018 was nearly 51.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 10 in ten years.

5%.

  In 2018, the total size of China’s IDC business market reached 122.8 billion U.S. dollars, with an annual growth rate of 29.

8%, well above the global level.

  (Source: IDC circle) Investment, research on the development history of IDC, we need to focus on the following three time periods: 1. In 2010, the IDC license review gate algorithm was relaxed. Many companies can enter the IDC business field and quickly expand the market, so the growth has reachedA peak (Jin Qilin analyst); 2. In 2014, the release of 4G business operation permission and expansion of mobile Internet traffic entrances led to more application requirements; 3. In 2016, short video technology was widely used.The existing traffic volume is maintained, the application market maintains a balanced layout, and the scale of the IDC business market is relatively relatively fast.

  At present, the reduction of 5G technology is about to be commercialized on a large scale and combined with the continuous upgrade of the application layer, the traffic growth brought by it will benefit the IDC industry; gradually, the rapid development of the domestic cloud computing market continues to drive the demand of the IDC industry.

  (Source: CISCO) (1) Cloud computing vendors, Internet companies are the main demanders According to statistics from China Data Center Industry Development Alliance, cloud computing vendors, Internet companies, financial institutions and government agencies are the main demanders in the IDC market.

  (Source: China Digital Alliance, China Merchants Bank Research Institute) The biggest demand for IDC is the major cloud computing vendors, accounting for 37%. Players in this field are basically giants, mainly including Ali, Tencent, China Telecom, Amazon, etc.
  For users, cloud services are software and hardware resources that can be called at any time according to demand, but for cloud computing vendors, IDC infrastructure is their production materials.

  It is a category of Internet companies, accounting for 25%. Software such as WeChat can support hundreds of millions of people at the same time every day. It would not be possible to rely on strong server support.

  But not all Internet companies are IDC demanders.

With the development of cloud computing, small Internet companies increasingly do not need to have their own IDC data centers. It is a more cost-effective option to directly purchase public cloud services. Therefore, large Internet companies will gradually become the mainstream of this customer base.

  Financial information systems are the core infrastructure of the contemporary financial industry, so financial institutions are also important customers in the IDC industry, currently accounting for about 12%; government customers ‘demand for IDC mainly provides services such as data exchange, backup, and storage for government departments.Its demand is largely policy-oriented and currently accounts for 17%.

  The above is the current stock market structure. In the future incremental market, due to the continued rapid growth of the scale of the cloud market, the average annual growth rate in 7 years is as high as 52.

34%, cloud computing vendors and large-scale Internet will be the main force driving demand.

  (II) The basic telecommunications operators are traditional giants. The competitiveness of third-party IDC vendors is clearly divided according to the service objects. The entire market can be divided into external services and self-built and self-use. The data center services for external services are mainly provided by the basic telecommunications operators.And third-party data center service providers.

  (Source: ICT Institute) The three major telecom operators are strong in network resources, government, and funds. They have been the main force in data center construction, but their proportion has declined in recent years.  In 2018, the three major operators of China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile had a market share of 51.

6%.

  The power of third-party IDC vendors is gradually rising, and they are more flexible and professional, and can provide customized services. Compared with basic operators, they can quickly adapt to emerging technologies and customer demand changes.

  The main third-party operators include IWC, Century Internet, Baoxin Software, Dr. Peng, Halo New Network, and Dataport, accounting for about 14% in total.

  Other categories have a market share of 34.

1%, including self-built and small and medium-sized third-party IDC companies.

  In November 2019, only six of the six new IDC projects approved by Shanghai were operated by telecommunications, and the other five participated in the construction of third-party IDC enterprises.

  (3) IDC construction with higher PUE is restricted by first-tier cities. IDC belongs to the heavy asset industry. The business model of this industry is actually very simple, that is, the construction of the machine room in the early stage, and the replacement rent according to the volume of the customer, the number of cabinets and other resources.

  The cost of IDC manufacturers is mainly composed of two parts: fixed asset depreciation (CAPEX) and operating expenses (OPEX).

Expenditure on fixed assets includes up-front expenditures such as land, construction, and equipment, while operating expenses are mainly electricity costs.

  Taking data port cost analysis as an example, 52% of the cost comes from electricity expenses (OPEX), while the rent and equipment depreciation account for 39% (CAPEX). Others include labor costs.

  Of course, not all manufacturers have a large amount of rent expenses. This will inevitably lead to self-built or leased factories.

  Because first-tier cities have a large number of large-scale network backbone repeaters with full network coverage, and most Internet companies and financial institutions’ headquarters (mainly IDC users) are located in first-tier cities, the closer the data center is to users, the faster the data processing and viewing speed, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have the greatest demand for IDC.

  However, data centers need to use a lot of land and power resources. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have issued policies to restrict IDC construction, replacing the latest policy documents.

  According to the report of the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, the demand for IDC cabinets in Beijing in 2018 was 300,000, while only 18 cabinets were available.

60,000, Shanghai, Guangzhou-Shenzhen gap between supply and demand is also 40,000-50,000, showing that IDC resources in first-tier cities are very valuable.

  Next, look at these issues. Data centers are high-productivity industries, which are directly related to operating costs and cause IDC companies to be restricted by policies.

So how much power does it consume?

  In 2018, the national data center consumed 1,608 electricity.

8.9 billion kWh, accounting for 2% of China’s total electricity consumption.

.

35% (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), which exceeds 1,567 kilowatt-hours of electricity in Shanghai.

  The PUE in the table above is a ratio, the closer it is to 1 the better the energy efficiency level.

  In January 2019, the three ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the “Guidelines on Strengthening the Construction of Green Data Centers by Three Departments.”

4 or less.

  According to industry information network data, the average PUE of domestic IDC suppliers in 2018 exceeded 2.

Compared with newly constructed data centers, the early data centers had higher levels of double rooms.

  Second, company introduction In addition to the three major operators, the IDC industry has a low concentration, and cities account for the total in the above statistics.

1% of GDS and 4% of Vnet are listed on US stocks.

  The A-share market generally has the following ones: Halo New Network, Baoxin Software, Dr. Peng and Dataport, which will be introduced one by one later.

  (1) Halo New Network Halo New Network was established in 1999 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2014. It is a professional data center and cloud computing service provider in China. The actual controller is Geng Diangen.

  (Source: 北京夜网 Company’s official website) The expansion of Halo’s new network business is closely related to Amazon.

In December 2013, Amazon announced that it would launch a Chinese cloud computing platform, and Halo New Network became the Internet data center business basic resource provider for Amazon AWS (Amazon Web Services) ‘s cloud computing business in China.

  Since then, the company has invested heavily in building a cloud computing base. Currently, it has a number of self-built data centers in Beijing, Shanghai and surrounding areas, including Jiuxianqiao and Kexin Shengcai.

  1. Revenue constitutes Halo New Network’s main business is IDC and its value-added services and cloud computing business.

  The cloud computing business is mainly to provide domestic customers with cloud services based on AWS technology, including IaaS, PaaS, SaaS and related technical services.

  淡水桑拿网IDC and value-added services are server hosting, rental and operation and maintenance services.

In addition, the company also provides IDC operation management services, which refers to exporting operation management services for other data centers.

  The company’s revenue has been in a period of rapid growth in recent years. From 2015 to 2018, the overall revenue has increased from 5.

9.2 billion to 60.
2.3 billion, with a combined strength of 116.
7%.

  The growth driver is mainly to grow the cloud computing business, but the growth rate of the IDC business cannot be underestimated. From 2015 to 2018, the average annual compound growth of IDC and its value-added services was 63.

8%.

  2. As early as the beginning of the relevant investment (2014), Halo New Networks took cloud computing and data services as the focus of its future development, and its listing fundraising project was changed from “broadband access service expansion project” to “acquisition of Shanghai Bright Moon Optical Co., Ltd.”” For the Shanghai Jiading Green Cloud Computing Base Project.

  After that, the company’s investment and acquisitions almost all started around cloud computing and IDC businesses.

  June 2015 to 1.

2.1 billion acquired 100% stake in DXN Zhiyuan, which is responsible for implementing the construction of Fangshan Green Cloud Computing Base.

  In September 2015, it spent 2.9 billion US dollars to acquire 100% equity of Zhongjin Cloud Network and Wushuang Technology.

Among them, the 100% equity price of CICC Cloud Network is 24.

US $ 100 million. Its main business is data center expansion services and private cloud services. As of August 2015, it has 8,790 cabinets.

  March 2016 to 1.

600 million shares acquired 100% equity of Yasun Xinwang, and used its house in Chaoyang District to expand the Jiuxianqiao data center.

  February 2018 to 11.

4.8 billion shares acquired 85% of Kexin Shengcai, and 8,100 Yizhuang green internet data center planned cabinets owned by Kexin Shengcai.

  In September 2019, Kunshan Company 42 was acquired for 90 million.

85% equity, capital increase after the transaction, the company will actually have 63% of its voting rights.

Kunshan is responsible for the implementation of the company’s Kunshan Meihongye Green Cloud Computing Base Project, which is planned for construction1.

40,000 2N standard cabinets.

  Due to the continuous large-scale mergers and acquisitions, as of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s book goodwill has reached 24 billion, accounting for 19% of total assets.

6%, need to be alert to the risk of goodwill impairment.

  3. The IDC business of major contract companies uses a retail model. The top five customers in 2018 accounted for about 20%, including AWS, Samsung, Meituan, Xiaomi, and China Mobile.

  As of the end of 2018, the major sales contracts that Halo New Network has reached are as follows: multiple IDC and value-added service orders with Beijing Mobile have been arranged.

800 million, the previous budget amount was 6.

03 billion.

IDC with Beijing Unicom Expressway and its value-added service order list 4.

2.3 billion, the previous budget amount was 1.

36 billion.

Merged with Beijing Sankuai Technology Co., Ltd. IDC and its value-added service orders1.

900 million, the cumulative amount is 44.05 million; Beijing Sankuai Cloud Computing IDC and its value-added service orders1.

3.9 billion, the previous budget amount was 1.

13 billion.

The total amount of the data center outsourcing service contract of the subsidiary Zhongjin Yunwang with Huaxia Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Xinhua PICC for ten years.

88, 2.

9, 2.

07 billion, yet not budgeted amount of 50.72 million, 55.97 million and 1.

86 billion.

  4. Dividends and fund-raising can be seen. In order to develop cloud computing and data centers, the company bought the land to build its own data center or conduct mergers and acquisitions.

  So where does the money come from?

  Since the company’s listing, it has conducted two non-public offerings, including the acquisition of Zhongjin Yunwang in 2015, Wushuang Technology and the acquisition of Kexin Shengcai in 2018.
  In addition to paying the transaction price by issuing shares, it also raised an additional 2.9 billion yuan and 5 matching funds.
800 million for paying cash consideration and building cloud computing base projects.

  In terms of dividends, according to the “Our Big Data” system, the company has paid a total of 7 dividends in the 6 years of listing.

  Gradually pay dividends 2.

1 billion, the accumulated equity raised 64.

800 million, the money currently raised from shareholders far exceeds dividends.

  (2) Dataport Dataport is the youngest of several companies. It was established in 2009 and entered the A-share market in 2017.

The controlling shareholder is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Jing’an District, Shanghai.

  The company’s business model is to deeply restrict BAT. From 2013 to 2015, the revenue of Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent exceeded 90% of total revenue, which has declined in recent years.

  Among them, especially the closer cooperation with Alibaba. Alibaba Cloud’s first data center was the 536 data center built by the data port in 2009.

  The company’s data center business originated in Shanghai and Hangzhou, and later added data centers such as Zhangbei, Hebei, Fangshan, Beijing, Nantong, Jiangsu, Heyuan, Guangdong, and Wulanchabu, Inner Mongolia.

  (Source: Alibaba) In addition, it is worth mentioning that the average PUE of the data port in 2018 has reached 1.

4. Reach the overall level.

Several other companies have not released this data.

  1. Business composition Since its establishment, the company has mainly reorganized its IDC business. In 2018, it increased its revenue from IDC solution business.

  The main source of IDC solution income is the contracted amount of the first phase construction project of the Changshan Cloud Data Center Project of Changshan Beiming.

6.5 billion.

The project content includes the equipment room building, power center design, construction, commissioning and delivery, and later operation and maintenance for 60 months.

  From 2015 to 2018, the company’s sales revenue increased from 3.

35 billion to 9.

100 million, with a composite strength of 39.

5%.

  2. The wholesale model adopted by the IDC business of major contract data ports, through long-term service with telecom operators in Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu’s three major Internet companies, the top five customers accounted for 87 in 2018.

About 4%.

  In March 2019, the company and the Alibaba Cloud Millennium “Business Cooperation Agreement”, the company will underwrite the total amount of not less than RMB 4 within the 6-year cooperation period.

3.5 billion Alibaba Cloud products / services.

  In March 2019, a long-term memorandum of cooperation with Alibaba on projects such as ZH13, and cooperation in the construction of ZH13, GH13, JN13, NW13, HB41 data centers. If the electricity fee is paid by the company, the total service fee is about 82.

800 million, the contract period is 10 years.

  In December 2019, Alibaba received a new demand letter of intent to cooperate in the construction of HB41, HB33, GH13, and JN13 data centers, with a total amount of about 24.

400 million, the contract period is 10 years.

  The income and profits generated by the above projects will be recognized in 10 years of operation and service grading according to the project delivery time and progress.

  3. Dividends and fundraising According to the “My Big Data” system, the company has been listed for 3 years and has been paid 3 times.

  Gradually pay 0.

600 million, cumulative equity raised funds 4.

100 million, the company’s listing time is expected, and eventually the total amount of funds raised is currently restructured for IPO.

  (3) Baoxin Software Baoxin Software is a listed software company controlled by Baosteel Co., Ltd., established in 1996, listed in Shanghai Steel Pipe in 2001, and headquartered in Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone.

  Since its establishment, Baoxin Software has been providing information construction services to Baosteel Group, and has now become one of the leaders in the field of industrial information technology, mainly serving the steel, transportation, chemical, financial, water conservancy, nonferrous metals, pharmaceutical and other industries.

  Beginning in 2013, the company began to vigorously promote the IDC business and build Baozhiyunyi?
In the fourth phase, using the powerful resources of Baosteel Group, it quickly established a foothold in the IDC market.

  IDC service end customers include Ouye, BFC Bund Financial Center, Alibaba, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, Chow Tai Fook, China National Chemical Corporation and others.
  1. Business composition Baoxin Software’s main business includes software development and engineering services, service expansion and system integration.

  Since the second half of 2013, the service has expanded more cloud computing operation services and IDC businesses, and has since become a major driver of service outsourcing growth.
  From 2015 to 2018, Baoxin Software’s total revenue was 39.

400 million to 54.

700 million, with an average annual compound strength of 11.

58%; and service outsourcing from 7.

200 million to 16.

900 million, with a composite strength of 33%.

  2. Relevant investment was raised through non-public offering in 20136.

500 million US dollars for the first phase of Baozhiyun IDC project; raised funds in 2015 through non-public offering11.

US $ 800 million for Baozhiyun IDC Phase III project; raised RMB 16 billion in 2017 through the public issuance of convertible bonds for Baozhiyun IDC Phase IV project; In January 2019, the company worked with WISCO Group and othersInvested in the establishment of WISCO Big Data Industrial Park. The company holds 20% of the shares and subscribed for 400 million yuan.

  The planned site of the IDC central area is located near the Wuhan Iron and Steel Plant, with a total area of about 135 acres. In the first phase to the end of 2019, it is planned to invest 2,000 standard cabinets; in the second phase, 2020-2021, it is planned to invest 6,000Standard cabinets; the third phase is from 2021 to 2023, and 10,000 standard cabinets are planned to be invested.

  3. Major contract In October 2013, Shanghai Telecom leased a remote data center agreement with Shanghai Telecom to lease Baozhiyun IDC Phase I project data center resources (3752 cabinets). The agreement ended on December 31, 2023, with a total amount of 25About 2.6 billion; In June 2014, the company contracted with Shanghai Mobile for a long-term customized service contract to build the second phase of the Baozhiyun IDC project (3800 cabinets).The total amount is 25?
2.6 billion; In October 2015, it integrated a customized service contract with Shanghai Telecom to build Baozhiyun IDC Phase 3 Building 1 (4000 cabinets). The contract is up to December 31, 2025, with a total amount of 25
2.6 billion; In August 2016, with Shanghai Telecom’s remote customized service contract, the construction of Baozhiyun IDC Phase 3 building 2 project, the contract until March 31, 2026, the total contract amount is 12?
1.3 billion US dollars; the construction of Baozhiyun IDC Phase 3 building 3 project, the contract is until July 31, 2026, the total amount of 14?
1.5 billion yuan.

In June 2017, a ten-year contract with CPIC was established to establish data center services according to standards and requirements. The building area is 40,000 square meters and is divided into 4 machine room modules. The contract period is 20 years and the total amount does not exceed 5.5 billion yuan.

In September 2019, the customized service contract with Shanghai Telecom’s remote Baozhiyun IDC Phase 4 and Buildings 2 and 3 was delivered by September 30, 2019, with a contract period of 10 years and a total amount not exceeding 31.

1.1 billion yuan.

  4. Dividends and fundraising According to the “My Big Data” system, Baoxin Software has been listed for 26 years and has been paid a total of 15 times.

  Gradually pay dividends13.

100 million yuan, more than 85.

1% of listed companies.

Accumulated equity funds 19.

500 million, slightly higher than the amount of dividends.

  (4) Dr. Peng Dr. Peng was founded in 1985 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1994. Prior to 2007, his main business was special steel smelting.

  In May 2007, it acquired Beijing Telecom Telecom Engineering Co., Ltd. and has since entered the field of telecommunications network value-added services.

In 2012, it became the largest private telecommunications value-added service listed company through the acquisition of a wholly-owned holding of Great Wall Broadband.

  The company’s data center business is provided as a value-added telecommunications service. As early as 2007, Dr. Peng already had 3 national A-level data centers.

  Pengbo Industrial holds Dr. Peng13.

11% equity is the controlling shareholder of the company, and the cumulative pledge ratio is currently 100%.

The actual controller of the company is Yang Xueping, who has been the chairman of the company since June 2002.

  1. Revenue composition Dr. Peng’s business is mainly composed of value-added services such as Internet access, data center business, and private network building operations.

  Total revenue for 2015-2018 was 79.

300 million pounds 68.

600 million, lack of growth.

  Internet access business revenue has begun to transition since 2017, mainly due to the Great Wall Broadband results that had previously generated a lot of revenue.

  The data center business is not Dr. Peng’s largest source of income. It can still maintain growth in recent years, with a compound intensity of 14% in 2015-2018.

  2. Significant contracts In January 2014, signed a Strategic Cooperation Memorandum with KT Corporation (the largest telecommunications operator in South Korea) to conduct in-depth cooperation in IDC business.
  In July 2014, it signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Mobile and agreed to carry out strategic cooperation in data center, broadband business, and industry informatization, but the company did not disclose more details.

  In 2015, he signed a cooperation agreement with Tencent, and Dr. Peng provided Tencent’s local network bandwidth, IP address, equipment port, and computer room environment.

  3. The development of major acquisition companies in the past 10 years has centered on the communications business and broadband business, with regard to investment substitution of IDC.

  In December 2011, the company took 10.

800 million successfully bid for 50% stake in Great Wall Broadband and 4.

800 million debts, at the end of 2012 to 7.
.
1.2 billion acquisition of the remaining 50% equity of Great Wall Broadband.

  In April 2015, the company acquired 100% equity of Vertex in the United States for a price not exceeding 9 million U.S. dollars. The company is engaged in telecommunications operations and has a synergistic complement to the company’s international OTT converged communications business.

  In 2016, it acquired a 100% stake in American Giggle Fiber for US $ 15 million, and is an operator engaged in Internet access and telephone video services.

  In 2017, acquired 93% equity of PLD for 90 million U.S. dollars. The company was completed for the construction of the PLCN submarine cable project. The project began preparations at the end of 2015. It was initially expected to be completed in 2018, but it has not yet been completed and put into operation.600 million yuan.

  (Source: the company’s official website) The acquisitions over the years have caused a lot of goodwill on the books, and the goodwill in the third quarter of 2019 was as high as 20.

89 billion, accounting for 9 of total assets.

1%.

  4. Performance forecast It is worth noting that in the performance forecast for 2019, Dr. Peng stated that the net profit in 2019 will reach 5.1-5.8 billion yuan.

  The initial loss is the impairment of fixed assets and the impairment of goodwill. It is initially determined that the provision for impairment of fixed assets is approximately 3.8 billion yuan, and the provision for impairment of goodwill is approximately 2 billion.

  The big impairment this time is definitely a big bath. The net profit of Pengbo Industrial since its inception in 2002 has been 47.

700 million-this time lost 18 years of money.

  Taking Great Wall Broadband, the subsidiary with the highest estimated impairment this time, as an example, the company plans to accrue a goodwill impairment of 14.

800 million, with impairment of fixed assets between 2 and 2.4 billion.

  Its revenue and net profit are expected to continue to decline. In 2018, it reduced from profit substitution, but the company gradually upgraded in the past to accrue goodwill impairment of only 5 million, and fixed asset impairment losses were accrued for substitution.

  5. Dividends and fundraising According to “Big Data of Our Shares”, the company has been listed for 26 years and has been paid 11 times.

  Dividends gradually11.

900 million, cumulative equity financing 26.

4 billion.

In June 2017 and April 2018, a total of 2 billion funds were raised through public offerings of corporate bonds.

  The above describes the pattern and characteristics of the IDC industry, as well as the four largest IDC business companies listed on A shares. The next four companies will be compared.

  III. Data Center Scale and IDC Business Revenue (I) Data Center Scale Halo New Network: It uses its own land to build its own data center. It has Dongzhimen, Jiuxian Bridge, Taihe Bridge, Aura Cloud Valley, Fangshan, Yizhuang in and around BeijingData Center; owns Shanghai Jiading Computing Base in Shanghai.

  At present, the number of operating cabinets exceeds 30,000, and the rack-up rate of completed cabinets is about 80%.

  Projects being planned and constructed include cloud computing base projects such as Fangshan Phase II, Hebei Yanjiao Phase III, Yanjiao Phase IV, Shanghai Jiading Phase II, and Jiangsu Kunshan Park.

After all the above-mentioned projects are in production (in the next 3-5 years), the company will have a service capacity of about 100,000 cabinets.

  Data port: As of the first half of 2019, the data port operates a total of 15 self-built data centers, covering Zhangbei, Hebei, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen, with a total of 1 deployments.

500,000 cabinets, 10.

670,000 servers.

  The projects under construction include HB33, JN13, HB41, GH12, ZH13, NW13 data center projects, Zhangbei data center 2A-3 and other projects.

  Baoxin Software: The first, second, and third phases of Baozhiyun IDC have been completed, and the number of operating cabinets in 2018 reached 1.

750,000 units are located in Shanghai.

  As of the first half of 2019, the fourth phase of Baozhiyun IDC is under construction, with expenditure accounting for 48% of the budget.

2%. After the completion of the Baozhiyun project, the total number of cabinets is planned to be 2.
650,000 units.

  After the completion of WISCO Big Data Center, 1 will be added.

80,000 cabinets.

  Dr. Peng: Currently, there are more than 20 data centers in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Sichuan, Hubei and other places. The total number of cabinets is about 30,000, and the total installed capacity of the server exceeds 330,000.

  From the current scale, Dr. Peng has the largest number of data centers and the widest geographical coverage.

  In terms of future construction and expansion, Halo New Network will definitely expand to 100,000 cabinets in the future. Baoxin Software and Dataport also have a large number of data center projects under construction, while Dr. Peng is relatively small.

  Because the power of the cabinets is different, let’s look at the IDC business scale of each company from the income.
  (II) IDC business scale and growth rate Here I will explain some. Baoxin Software ‘s IDC business income data is embedded in the calculation method of the brokerage firm, because the IDC business and traditional service expansion are classified as service outsourcing business in the annual report disclosure.Direct disclosure.

  Therefore, assuming that the company’s traditional service outsourcing market revenue growth rate is consistent with the industry growth rate, the remaining revenue is divided into IDC business revenue; in 2017 and before, Dr. Peng’s IDC business was calculated within the “Internet value-added services”, in 2018Individually listed Internet value-added services account for only 0.

3%, so considering that the IDC business accounts for a large proportion, we will treat Internet value-added service income until 2017 and before as IDC income; the data port revenue is mainly data center hosting service income and data center EPC general contract revenue.Since then, all its operating income has been used.

  In 2018, Dr. Peng’s IDC business income was 13.

53 billion, followed by Halo New Network12.

700 million, Baoxin software trial revenue is 10.

6.4 billion, the smallest data port revenue, 9.

1000000000.

  How about the growth rate of income?

  IDC business growth is volatile, but overall is in a period of rapid growth, and no company has experienced negative growth in the past four years.

  Among them, Baoxin Software’s IDC business growth rate is relatively stable, and each holds a growth rate of more than 60%; and Dr. Peng’s IDC business growth rate has slowed significantly between 2017 and 2018, less than 10%.

  As mentioned above, the IDC market size in 2018 increased by nearly 30% over the previous year. Based on this standard, the growth rate of IDC business of the three companies except Dr. Peng exceeded the market growth rate.

  Fourth, the comparison of financial conditions (a) the big data score of our stock According to the “big data of our stock” system, we can quickly obtain the above four companies’ financial report scores and market rankings in the past three years.

  The halo newnet drama rose from 69 to 79.

At 1 point, the market ranking also rose from the last 1/3 to the top 1/3, indicating that the company’s financial situation has gradually improved; the situation of Dataport and Halo New Network is similar, and the score in 2018 is slightly lower than that of Halo New Network, which is 78.

3 points, higher than the industry average of 75 points; Baoxin Software is the highest rated by four companies, reaching 88 in 2018.

4 points, ranking 48th in the market, is already outstanding; Dr. Peng is the only company with a declining score, and the market ranking continues to move backwards at the same time. Due to the huge pre-loss of performance, this trend may continue in 2019.

  (2) The income structure is applicable to the total income and income structure of the four companies in 2018. The revenue scales of Halo New Network, Baoxin Software and Dr. Peng are similar, and the size of the data port is much smaller than that of other companies.

  From the perspective of revenue structure, except for the data port, the IDC business of several other companies is not the business with the highest proportion.

  Halo Newnet ‘s IDC business is developed to serve its cloud computing. The main businesses of Baoxin Software and Dr. Peng are software development and Internet connection, respectively.

  (3) Profitability 1. The gross profit margin of IDC business is high. Looking at the IDC business alone, Halo New Network has the highest gross profit margin, maintaining above 50%, and continuing to grow.

Both Baoxin Software and Dr. Peng expect the business gross margins to remain above 40%.

  The gross profit margin of Dataport is lower, especially below 30% in 2018. This is due to the decline in its own IDC business gross profit margin, which was 37 in 2018.

24%, which can add 26 in the year.

The gross profit margin of the 4% IDC solution is only 12%, significantly lowering the overall level.

  Why does the gross profit margin of IDC business in Dataport decrease?

  The land and workshops of Halo New Network are owned by themselves (obtained through acquisition), and the initial expenses are large, but they are cheaper than renting a house. A large number of Baoxin Software’s workshops for building data centers are retrofits of their own old steel plants with the lowest cost.

  (Source: Announcement of Halo New Network Company) (Source: Announcement of Baoxin Software Company) The data port is leased land for self-construction or land provided by the customer Ali to build a factory, and the cost is relatively high.

  (Source: Dataport Company Announcement) As a whole, Dataport is a wholesale-type vendor with a high concentration of customers. The main customers are large cloud computing vendors such as Alibaba. The customers have strong bargaining power.

  Zhangbei Data Center, a data port located in Hebei, directly interrupted its contract with Alibaba (known as the basic telecommunications operator) with a gross profit margin of only 21.

6% In addition to the data port, the other three companies have other businesses with a combined proportion. Let’s take a look at the company’s comprehensive gross margin comparison.

  What is significantly different from the IDC business is that the overall gross profit margin of each company shows a downward or downward trend.

  Halo New Network has the lowest comprehensive gross profit margin, which was around 20% in the last three reporting periods. This is because its cloud computing business, which accounts for 73%, has only a gross profit margin of 10% in recent years?11%.

  For Baoxin Software, the gross profit margin of software development business, which accounts for 64%, has been decreasing year by year, and it was 20 in 2018.

7%, so the overall gross profit margin is also lower than the IDC business, at 26%?
33%.

  Dr. Peng’s overall gross profit margin is the highest due to the high gross profit margin of his Internet access business, which is basically above 50%.

But does it have the highest gross profit?

  2. The net interest rate and the rate of return on assets are the data ports dominated by IDC business. The net interest rate in 2015-2017 was around 20%. Since 2018, the improvement rate has still surpassed the other three companies.

  Halo New Network, Dataport and Baoxin Software’s net margins have been concentrated from long-term improvement.

For Dr. Peng, which has the highest comprehensive gross profit margin, the net profit margin has declined precipitously since 2018.
  Next, from the perspective of ROE, the profitability of each company’s shareholders’ equity is examined.

  We found that the data port ROE level that focuses on IDC business is also ahead of the other three companies, but has declined in recent years, from more than 20% in 2015 to only 14 in 2018.
.

25%.

  ROE of Xinhuanet and Baoxin Software were 8 in 2018.

9% and 10.

12%, which is not high, and has been increasing continuously since 2016.

  Dr. Peng’s ROE has been continuously replaced in the past few years and changed to 5 in 2018.

52%, the reason is the rapid replacement of net profit.

  (IV) Cash flow analysis Subsequently, we observed the profit quality and expansion of several companies by analyzing the company’s cash flow.

  The average of nearly five reports, the net cash flow reorganization of the four companies’ operating activities is positive, indicating that the company can earn real money through operating activities.

  Judging from the net present ratio of the company’s profit quality, the minimum value of Halo Xinnet was only greater than 1 in 2016; the net present ratio of the other three companies exceeded 1 for a long time, indicating that the net profit can indeed achieve the company’s profit level.

  Dr. Peng’s net present ratio is above 4.
.

5, is due to its broadband business model must be divided into annual advance budget.

  Let’s look at the net cash flow of generalized operating activities.

  Halo New Network, Dataport and Dr. Peng’s net operating cash flow in the past five reporting periods were mostly negative.

From 2015 to the third quarter of 2019, the Halo New Network has a total net turnover of 30.

7.7 billion, data port net reduction of 15.

200 million, Dr. Peng has a net reduction of 32.

93 billion.

  This shows that even if several companies have the ability to continue to profit from their operating activities, they have expanded spending every year on investment, and cash flow is still very tight, and they can only maintain business expansion by continuously raising funds.

  Baoxin Software is the only company with a long-term net net inflow of cash from large enterprises. According to the above, it can also carry out investment construction, but its expansion rate is still relatively conservative compared to its financial status.

  Poor generalized net cash flow from operating activities means that the company must expand by borrowing. We further analyze the company’s asset structure and debt repayment ability to see whether such expansion will have debt risk.

  (V) Asset structure and solvency of the four companies, Dr. Peng has the highest asset-liability ratio, steadily staying at more than 68%.

  Dataport’s asset-liability ratio is also relatively high, which fell to 47% in 2017, due to the absence of short-term debt and long-term payables at the end of the year.

  The asset-liability ratio guidelines for Baoxin Software and Halo Xinwang are at predetermined levels.

  Baoxin Software has accounted for 12 in 2017.

7 trillion bonds, a short jump, fell to 28 the following year.

3%.

  However, Halo Xinwang and Dr. Peng have goodwill on the asset side. Since the project is not an asset with real value, the actual asset-liability ratio is actually higher.
  After removing the influence of goodwill, Dr. Peng’s asset-liability ratio reached about 76%, and Halo Xinwang was not the company with the lowest asset-liability ratio.

  Next, look at the current ratio. As the ratio of current assets to current debt, this value can reflect the company’s short-term solvency.

  In terms of numerical comparisons, Dr. Peng has the lowest current ratio, and has not exceeded 0 since 2015.

5. It has not improved significantly, and its debt service ability is not good.

  This is mainly because Dr. Peng’s current income has a large amount of advance receipts. In 2016-2018, the proportion of advance receipts to current liabilities was 52.

7%, 63.

8% and 66.

7%.

  Dataport’s current ratio is basically zero.

Between 7 and 1 times, there is still a significant extension in the third quarter of 2019, mainly due to excessive short-term increases.

  The halo new network has a current ratio of 1.
2 to 2.

Fluctuations between 7 times, Baoxin Software’s short-term debt repayment ability is the strongest, and can basically remain above 2 times.

  From the perspective of asset structure and debt repayment ability, Baoxin Software has the lowest possibility of debt risk, while Dr. Peng and Dataport’s debt pressure is relatively overcome.

  Summary Nearly half of the current IDC market share is still in the hands of the three major operators. Although the proportion of third-party IDC service providers is somewhat dispersed, competition has intensified.

  Through the analysis of various companies, it is found that the entire industry is indeed in a period of rapid development.

  The specific performance is the proportion of IDC business that has never accounted for total revenue. The companies with rapid growth and the highest gross profit margins have the combined strength of IDC business in recent years.Over 30%.

  Halo Newnet has caught up with Amazon Express, a company with revenue growth and growth in the past few years. The IDC business mainly covers the Beijing area and is expected to achieve the service capacity of 100,000 cabinets in the next 3-5 years.

  Its development model is to purchase a large number of subsidiaries for plant construction. The initial investment cost is high. As a retail data center, the rent for a single cabinet is higher, but the contract period costs and revenue are uncertain.

In addition, the book has an impediment to goodwill, and believes that the company’s net interest rate is not high, and impairment will have a great impact on performance.

  Dataport and Alibaba have continued to deepen their cooperation. If the current demand letter and cooperation memorandum can successfully reach the contract, it will bring more than 10 billion service fee income.

Although the gross profit margin of the IDC business is relatively high, the company has sufficient business and the overall profitability is the best among the four companies.

  The data centers of Baoxin Software are mostly located in Shanghai. They are mainly customized after long-term contracts with customers. The overall shelf rate is high and the revenue is relatively easy to predict.

The cash flow situation is the best among the four companies. The main business income can cover the investment and construction expenditure, and there is little pressure to repay debt.

  Dr. Peng’s IDC business has started initially, but it has been the slowest in recent years.

The reason is that in recent years, the company’s development focus has been on overseas business, and the PLCN submarine cable project jointly built with Google and Facebook has gradually expanded by 25.

5 billion, currently not completed and reached production.

  And because the performance of its subsidiary Great Wall Broadband has deteriorated severely, it is the only company whose total revenue is sustained.

The huge investment supplement business contracted, Dr. Peng’s profitability expanded, the asset-liability ratio was the highest, the debt repayment ability was weak, the controlling shareholder’s pledge rate was as high as 100%, and the company’s overall uncertainty and risks were overcome.

China Shenhua (601088) Company Research: Core Hard Assets of Long-term Investment Value

China Shenhua (601088) Company Research: Core Hard Assets of Long-term Investment Value

The entire industry chain is initially integrated.

Since the company’s listing, it has continuously integrated the high-quality assets of the National Energy Group to promote industrial synergies. At present, it has formed a “coal power road” for coal production → coal transportation (railroads, ports, highways) → coal conversion (power generation, coal chemical industry).Hong Kong’s “Hangzhou” preliminary integrated business model. The integrated business model can provide stable and reliable supply guarantees and an internal consumer market, and fully explore and obtain every alternative operating profit in the coal-based industry chain.

Long association locks volume and price, and the cost is obvious.

3.
After the merger, the company’s coal sales are mainly based on the long-term agreed price of “base price + floating price”, which is significantly smaller than the local ones, and the profit of the coal segment is stable; instead, the company’s existing production capacity3.

500 million tons, of which open-air production accounts for nearly 40%, and the average production capacity of a single well exceeds 10 million.

Benefiting from simple geological conditions and excellent cost control capabilities, the company’s cost per ton of coal is 重庆耍耍网 much lower than the industry average, thus building a natural moat.

Coal-electricity joint venture, ironing cycle.

In order to improve the company’s ability to resist market risks, the company has actively developed the power sector since its inception, making full use of the advantages of the coal and transportation segments, and arranging coal-fired units around the pit mouths, along the railway, and in the “Haijinjiang” radiation area, as far as possibleReduce the need to ensure self-sufficiency of raw materials for coal-fired power plants.

By creating a “coal-electricity joint venture” model, the company can to some extent suppress the impact of coal price fluctuations on overall performance, and promote the healthy and stable development of the coal and power segments.

Road, port and air transportation to build an integrated transportation network and strive to maximize benefits.

The company is the only domestic coal supply company with a scale and integrated transportation network, covering railways, ports, and gradually three major sections. Depending on its strong transportation system, the company can seamlessly dock upstream coal resources with downstream end users and strive to achieve benefitsmaximize.
The bottom of the performance is clear, and the margin of safety is extremely high.

We make a flexible calculation of the company’s performance and believe that under extreme pessimism, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother will still remain at about 40 billion, the bottom of the performance is clear, and the margin of safety is extremely high.

The highest, when the spot price fell to 500 yuan / ton, the company’s own coal production may lead to a net profit reduction of 3.2 billion; because of the decline in coal prices, the decline in pit openings is smaller than the spot in the port, resulting in a decline in the gross profit of trade coalAt a pessimistic level, trading coal will cause the company’s net profit to return to motherhood to fall by 2 billion yuan.

Underestimating high dividends, the defense value is prominent.

After the merger, the company has always expected shareholders, insisted on a stable dividend strategy, and gradually distributed dividends of nearly 200 billion yuan since its listing.

Considering the company’s stable profitability, sufficient cash flow and expected gradual expansion of capital expenditures, high dividends in the future are still worth looking forward to.

At the same time, the company currently deducts only PE (TTM) only 8.

2 times, in the historical 19% quantile; PB (LY) is only 1.

17 times, in the historical 27% quantile, all far below the historical average, and the defense value is prominent.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

What do we expect the company to do in 2019?
Realize a net profit of 430 in 2021.

300 million, 424.

800 million, 435.

600 million, EPS is 2 respectively.

16 yuan, 2.

14 yuan, 2.

19 yuan, corresponding to PE is 8.

6, 8.

7, 8.

5.
We believe that the company is an industry leader in the fields of coal, electricity, railways, ports, etc. and has strong competitiveness.

Benefiting from the synergy and preliminary integration advantages of the company’s “coal-electricity, road, port and shipping” entire industry chain, the bottom of the performance is still obvious during the downward cycle of coal prices, and its ability to resist risks is extremely strong.

At the same time, taking into account the company’s abundant cash flow, low debt, low capital expenditure, underestimation, and high and stable dividend ratio, the company’s defensive attributes are prominent in the context of the current market environment uncertainty script, so it was first covered and given a “buy”Rating.

Risk reminder: The coal price has fallen steeply, the benchmark price of the Long Association has been reduced, and the on-grid electricity price has been reduced. The company has experienced a security accident.

Lianhua Technology (002250): Pharmaceutical intermediates drive growth and pesticide business attempts to improve

Lianhua Technology (002250): Pharmaceutical intermediates drive growth and pesticide business attempts to improve
The company’s recent situation The company’s recent performance is better, and has continued to increase by 15% since the beginning of December. We believe it is mainly due to the company’s Yancheng base resumed production probability transmission and the market’s attention to the company’s pharmaceutical intermediate business development. Comment on the construction of new projects driving the growth of pharmaceutical intermediate business.According to the company’s official website information, the company’s annual output of 2135 tons of pharmaceutical intermediates technological transformation project of some products in trial production in 4Q19, the company expects to achieve revenue after all the projects are in production11.7.9 billion yuan, realizing profits and taxes2.700 million.The company plans to invest in Linhai Park, a chemical raw material base in Zhejiang Province9.The company plans to build 800 tons of diamide esters and other 9 projects with an annual output of USD 800 million. The company expects to achieve 重庆耍耍网 annual sales income of RMB 2 billion after reaching the production capacity. At the same time, the company plans to invest USD 500 million to build 20 tons of Wibergeron intermediates in the Chuannan plant in Taizhou.The company expects to achieve an annual sales income of 1 billion yuan after reaching production.We expect the construction of new projects to drive the continuous growth of the pharmaceutical intermediate business. The pesticide intermediate business is expected to improve.At present, the company’s Yancheng base is still temporarily suspended. However, seven major products in Jiangsu Lianhua and Yancheng Lianhua plants have spare capacity in other bases of the company. The spare capacity accounts for nearly 20% of the company’s total capacity in Yancheng base. We expect the capacity to increaseMitigation of 北京桑拿 the impact of the Yancheng base suspension.Thanks to the long-term and stable cooperation relationship between the company and its core customers, dense customers, and careful and timely communication between the company and its core customers during the suspension of production, the company’s cooperation with long-term customers avoids conflicts; meanwhile, according to Jiangsu’s “Regulations on regulating production suspension and rectification of chemical enterprises to resume production”Work Opinions “, adhere to the” one enterprise, one policy “, according to the situation, put an end to” one size fits all “and other policies, we expect the company’s Yancheng base to resume production with a higher probability. The business area of functional chemicals is broad and the development of space barriers.The company’s functional chemicals business covers industrial fungicides, advanced pigment and dye intermediates, personal / household care products, new display material intermediates, battery chemicals, paper chemicals, etc., and forms strategic cooperation with international market leaders to develop in the future.Space power. Estimates suggest that we maintain our 2019/20 profit forecast3.7/6.0 million yuan, the company currently corresponds to the 2019/20 price-earnings ratio of 40.2/24.8 times.Taking into account the evaluation switch and the expansion of the company’s pharmaceutical business, we raise our target price by 19% to 18.5 yuan in the past, there is 15% overall growth space, the target price corresponds to 2020 price-earnings ratio of 29x, maintain outperformed industry rating. Risks: The Yancheng base resumes production lower than expected, the price of o-chlorobenzonitrile drops, and the development of pharmaceutical business is lower than expected.

Fangda Special Steel (600507) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Comments: Production in the third quarter is significantly reduced, and the fourth quarter is expected to return to normal

Fangda Special Steel (600507) 2019 Third Quarterly Report 深圳桑拿网 Comments: Production in the third quarter is significantly reduced, and the fourth quarter is expected to return to normal

The company’s revenue in the first three quarters decreased by 13% quarterly, and net profit attributable to its mother decreased by at least 45%, in line with expectations.

With the resumed production of No. 2 blast furnace, the company’s output has been forecast.

As a long product company with the best cost control and profitability in the industry, the follow-up company’s performance will be committed to the continuous industry.

The company’s three quarterly reported revenue and performance were in line with expectations.

The company achieved operating income of 110 in the first three quarters.

94 ppm, a ten-year average of 13.

21%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 12.

7.7 武汉夜生活网 billion, previously 44 per second.

82%.

Among them, Q3 2019 single quarter realized operating income of 28.

410,000 yuan, 37 in the previous ten years.

48%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

US $ 2.2 billion, with a ten-year average of 77.

99%.

The output fell significantly in the third quarter and is expected to return to normal levels in the fourth quarter.

The company’s steel product sales in the first three quarters of 2019 were 275.

48 at least, down 17 each year.

72%, of which Q3 single-season sales were 68.

47 initially, 39 per year.

57%, down 34.

91%, first of all, the No. 1050 cubic blast furnace with an accident in May this year was in a shutdown state.

However, from October 8 each year, the blast furnace is officially resumed production. It is expected that the company’s performance in the fourth quarter will be limited by production and sales restrictions.

Rising raw material costs have led to a significant decline in the company’s profitability.

Considering that the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises is usually around one month, the average price per ton of iron ore in the third quarter was 741.

50 yuan, up 70% before, 20% higher than the previous month, so the company’s cost climbed significantly in the third quarter.

In addition, the company’s single-quarter ton revenue in the third quarter fell by about 100 yuan from the previous quarter.

In the case of appropriate output and rising costs, the company’s third quarter performance was under pressure.

The profit margin is significantly lower than that of the industry, and the special steel plate provides anti-cyclical capability.

According to our model calculations, the average gross profit per ton of the industry’s threads in the third quarter was about 200 yuan, a continuous decline of more than 800 yuan, while the company’s gross profit per ton in the third quarter was 605 yuan, a decrease of 372 yuan.

Both the increase in profit and the absolute value of gross profit are significantly engaged in the industry.

In addition to common materials, the company is deployed in the field of spring flat steel and automotive leaf springs. During the downward phase of the industry cycle, the anti-interference of the special steel business attempts to support the company’s profitability.

Risk factors: Real estate investment and new start-up exceed expectations; competition in the emerging flat steel market is intensifying.

Investment suggestion: The company is a long product company with the best cost control and profitability in the industry. At the same time, the special steel properties are precisely the company’s ability to resist cycles.

In the downturn of the steel industry cycle, the company’s production limit has come to an end, and it is expected that the performance of subsequent companies will continue.

In the third quarter, due to the double squeeze of the raw material side and its own output side, the company’s performance was obviously under pressure, but the price of converted iron ore dropped significantly. It is expected that the company’s fourth-quarter profit level will usher in a certain improvement.

Taking into account, we will forecast the company’s EPS for 2019-21 by 1.

25/1.

59/1.73 yuan down to 1.

09/1.

18/1.

22 yuan.

Based on a 3x PB estimate in 2019, we lower our target price to 10.

37 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

National Securities (600109): Net profit increased 16% year-on-year better than peers

National Securities (600109): Net profit increased 16% year-on-year better than peers

Investment highlights: Investment banking business expanded in 18 years, but IPO reserves are still abundant.

The differentiated service model featuring active management has steadily increased the scale of special asset management.

Steady investment strategy, achieved high investment returns in 18 years.

Reasonable value range 10.

30-10.

99 yuan, maintain the “excellent than the market” rating.

  Event: National 青岛夜网Gold Securities realized operating income of USD 3.8 billion in 2018, -14% per year; net profit attributable to its mother was USD 1 billion, -16% per year; corresponding to EPS 0.

33 yuan.

In the fourth quarter, the operating income was 13 trillion, ten years + 5%; the net profit attributable to mothers was 3 trillion, ten years-7%.

The larger-than-expected net profit was smaller than that of its peers mainly due to the company’s higher investment income.

No credit impairment loss has been accrued for 18 years, and USD 200 million has been accrued for asset impairment losses.

Brokerage / underwriting / asset management / index / investment income accounted for 26% / 19% / 4% / 15% / 28% of operating income respectively.

  Develop a high customer service system and build core competitiveness.

Realizing brokerage income of 10 million US dollars, -20% per year.

Share-based trading market accounted for 1.

39%, a slight increase in one year, the commission rate is 0.

031%.

As of the end of December, the balance of Liangrong was 5.9 billion and the market share was zero.

78%, the market share increased by 0 in ten years.

04ppt.

The un-decompressed market value balance of stock pledges was 545 million, an increase of + 8% over the previous 17 years; a surplus of US $ 3.7 billion from self-owned finance.

  The scale of investment banking business in 18 years, but IPO reserves are still abundant.

Realized underwriting income of 70,000 yuan, -47% for the whole year.

The scale of underwriting of stocks and bonds is -64% and -15% each year.

The scale of equity underwriting was 13.1 billion; of which 4 were IPOs and 2.5 billion were underwriting; 12 were refinancing and 10.6 billion were underwriting.

The scale of bond underwriting was 29.9 billion yuan; the underwriting scale of corporate bonds and corporate bonds reached 8.3 billion yuan and 2.9 billion yuan respectively.

There are 113 IPO reserve projects, of which 9 are main boards, 9 are small and medium-sized boards, and 16 are GEM boards.

The company registered 137 Bao Dais, ranking 5th.

  The differentiated service model featuring active management has steadily increased the scale of special asset management.
Realize asset management income of 10,000 yuan, -29% per year.

The scale of entrusted management is US $ 142.9 billion, a year-32%; of which the scale of collective asset management is US $ 2.5 billion, which is -73% for decades; the scale of targeted asset management is US $ 109.2 billion, each time -36%;, + 7% for one year.

  Steady investment strategy, achieved high investment returns in 18 years.

Realized net investment income (including fair value) of 11 ‰, + 126% per year.

The company adopts a stable investment strategy, proactively reduces risk appetite, and appropriately expands the scale of bond investment to achieve higher investment returns.

  Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s total net profit for 2019-2021E to be 0.

42, 0.

45, 0.

48 yuan, the absolute net assets are 6 respectively.87, 7.

22, 7.

6杭州桑拿网 0 dollars.

We give it 1 of 2019.

50-1.

60 times PBR, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 10.

30-10.

99 yuan, maintaining the “primary market” rating.

  Risk Warning: The continued downturn in the market will lead to the expansion of business scale and further strengthening of market supervision.

CNOOC Engineering (600583): FY18 performance is in line with expectations; FY19 resumes momentum

CNOOC Engineering (600583): FY18 performance is in line with expectations; FY19 resumes momentum

The 2018 performance was basically in line with expectations. In 2018, CNOOC Engineering’s revenue increased by 8% to US $ 11.1 billion, and net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 84% to approximately 80 million yuan, basically in line with our expectations.

The company’s performance recovered significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Revenue increased by 29%, increased 南宁桑拿 by 43% month-on-month, and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 16%, which increased more than 4 times., The order conversion rate is significantly higher than in the past.

In 2018, the company’s domestic new year single order was US $ 16.4 billion and overseas US $ 1.1 billion. At the end of last year, the company had orders in hand of approximately US $ 18.5 billion.

Development Trend Looking forward to the new overseas orders of 10 billion in 2019, the first big order has been settled.

We mentioned in the report that the rating was upgraded to “recommended” on January 22 this year. It is expected that from 2019, the company’s overseas orders and revenue may achieve a breakthrough. The company is expected to track multiple bids in the Middle East, Canada and Russia.Landed during the year and brought in 南京龙凤网 orders totaling more than 10 billion yuan.

The company announced last night that it had won one of the LNG module construction contracts worth up to $ 5 billion, laying a solid foundation for this year’s overseas order breakthrough.

The company rarely guides 30% high revenue growth, reflecting firm recovery confidence.

The company disclosed that according to the business plan for 2019, it is expected that revenue will increase by more than 30% per year.

This is the first time in many years that the company has redefined a clear revenue guidance, and this guidance exceeds the 25% revenue growth rate currently expected by the market, and our expected growth rate is 36%.

The company plans to have about 19 appendixes of steel processing capacity in 2019, and about 1 ship operation day.

70,000, all increased from last year and restored to 2015 levels.

The company proactively carried out organizational reforms to improve overall operating efficiency.

We remind the market to pay attention to the organizational reform completed by the company last year: 1) The merger of the market development department and the project management department is mainly to improve the synergy of project bidding and operation, to comprehensively identify the returns and risks of the project, and to promote the company to obtain improved orders.Capabilities; 2) According to the two main business lines of construction and installation, two business divisions are formed, which are unifiedly managed separately, and the regional branches are replaced to reduce the internal resource competition and internal consumption.

Earnings forecast At present, our 2019 profit forecast for the company is the highest in the market, maintaining the 19/20 forecast.

Estimates and recommendations Based on the certainty of overseas breakthroughs and firm firm recovery confidence, we estimate the target from 1.

2x 2019 P / B ratio increased to 1.

4 times, raise the target price by 17% to 7.

7 yuan, corresponding to 27% of the upward space.

The company is currently trading at 1.

1x P / B ratio.

Risk oil prices fluctuated sharply, new growth exceeded expectations, and gross margin recovery was slower than expected.

Liuzhou Iron & Steel (601003): Performance in line with expectations

Liuzhou Iron & Steel (601003): Performance in line with expectations

This report reads: The company’s 2019H1 performance is in line with expectations, the volume and price of its profile products have risen, and the overall profitability has rebounded.

Land bias is expected to be weak but can be substituted in the second half of the year. As the leading steel company in Guangxi, the company’s performance will help maintain a high level.

Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.

The company achieved operating income of 228 in the first half of 2019.

7.8 billion, up 1 every year.

30%; net profit attributable to mother 12.

65 trillion, down 38 a year.

00%, of which the net profit attributable to mothers in the second quarter was 8.

8.1 billion, an increase of 129.

64%, the company’s Q2 performance rebounded, as a whole in line with expectations.

Considering the further deterioration of the market’s expectations for macro demand, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is maintained at 1.

25/1.

34/1.

52 yuan, giving the company a 5x 2019 PE estimate and lowering the company’s target price to 6.

25 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

Volume and price of profile products rose in the second quarter, and the company’s profitability rebounded.

In the second quarter of 2019, the company’s small material sales were 180 inches, an increase of more than 17.

80%.

In the second quarter of 2019, the average sales price of the company’s small materials was 3,567 yuan / ton, surpassing the increase of 4.

07%.

The gross profit per ton of steel of the company in Q2 2019 was 756 yuan / ton (excluding billet), which corresponds to a net profit of 404 yuan / ton per ton of steel, which increased by 350 yuan / ton and 181 yuan / ton respectively from the previous quarter.

It is expected that steel demand will be weak in the second half of the year but can still exist, and the company’s performance is expected to remain stable.

R & D expenses continued to increase, and operating cash flow increased significantly.

The company’s R & D expenses for the first half of 2019 were 5.

640,000 yuan, an increase of 111 compared with 2018.

20%, reflecting the company’s determination to enhance innovation, pursue product quality and optimize product structure.

As the company increased the proportion of bills payable for purchases, the company’s operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2019 was 27.

34 trillion, a significant increase of 1771 over the same period in 2018.

64%.

Total land gains, leading performance of regional steel companies maintained a high level.

Real estate inventory is at a low level and sales are slow. We do not expect a rapid decline in land demand. In the second half of the year, downstream demand is generally weak but can be replaced.

As the leading steel company in Guangxi Province, the company has strong steel demand in the province, and the company’s performance 四川耍耍网 has maintained a good level.

Risk warning: the macro economy is accelerating to decline; the supply side rises more than expected.

Financial stocks lifted this year to welcome small peak banks and brokerages

Financial stocks lifted this year to welcome small peak banks and brokerages

Original title: The lifting of financial stocks this year welcomes Xiaofeng Bank shares and brokerage stocks, which account for nearly 80%. Source: Securities Daily newspaper reporter Su Xiangyu The lifting of bans on circulating stocks often leads to pressure. Therefore, lifting stocks has been a hot spot in the market.

So, in 2020, which financial stocks will usher in lifting the ban, and what percentage of lifting stocks will affect it?

Therefore, “Securities Daily” reporter is now sorting out the financial stocks lifted in 2020 for investors’ reference.

  According to the statistics of the “Securities Daily” reporter, in 2020, the market value of financial stocks lifting of the ban (calculated on the closing price on January 6) totaled 493.5 billion yuan, of which 14 bank stocks had a market value of $ 193.1 billion, accounting for 39.

1%; the market value of 12 securities companies’ shares lifted reached 188.8 billion, accounting for 38.

3%.

This year, bank stocks and brokerage stocks together accounted for nearly 80淡水桑拿网% of the financial stocks’ market value.

  From the perspective of the types of banned stocks, the banned stocks in 2020 are mainly the initial stocks of restricted stocks issued by private shareholders and the placement of shares by targeted additional issuance institutions. Among them, the market value of the banned stocks of initial stocks of restricted stocks reached 288.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 58% of the market value of financial stocks;The market value of the ban on the issuance of shares by additional institutions has reached 112.7 billion, accounting for 23%.

Other types of shares are relatively small.

  A person in charge of equity investment in an insurance company told a reporter of the Securities Daily that a large proportion of listed companies ‘distributions lifted the contradiction and formed short-term effects, but in the medium and long term, the value of individual stocks after the test of lifting the ban may become more reasonable.Medium-, high-growth, low-estimation bank stocks are still the allocation of insurance capital, and the focus is on.

  Of the 26 securities firms, bank shares will welcome the lifting of the ban, accounting for 77% of financial shares. Among the financial shares lifting the ban this year, bank shares have the most market value.

  According to a reporter from the Securities Daily, in 2020, 14 bank shares will be lifted, including Postal Savings Bank, Yunong Commercial Bank, Zhejiang Commercial Bank, Bank of Beijing, Pudong Development Bank, Qingnong Commercial Bank, Industrial Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Zijin.Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, Bank of Shanghai, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Xi’an, Bank of Qingdao.

  Based on the closing price on January 6, the Bank of China’s Bank of China in 2020 has the highest market value of lifting the ban, reaching 442.

2 trillion; Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank followed closely, reaching 307.

500 million yuan; Zhejiang Commercial Bank ranked third with 213.

200 million yuan.

The Bank of Beijing, SPD Bank, Qingnong Commercial Bank, and Industrial Bank also approached a market value of more than 10 billion, respectively, at 166.

200 million, 157.

300 million, 154.

300 million, 113.

400 million yuan.

Other banks are below 10 billion yuan.

  The 12 brokerage shares that will be lifted in 2020 are China Galaxy, Minmetals Capital, Zhejiang Merchants Securities, Hongta Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, Caitong Securities, Huaxin Stock, Hualin Securities, Zhongyuan Securities, Guoyuan Securities, China SecuritiesThe investment capital, Oriental Securities, is calculated based on the closing price on January 6, and the market value of the lifting of the ban is 626 respectively.

100 million, 318.

300 million, 234.

600 million, 186.

300 million, 140.

0 billion, 136.

0 billion, 80.

0 billion, 71.

700 million, 48.

700 million, 32.

0 billion, 7.

800 million, 6.

400 million yuan.
  On the whole, these 26 securities companies have a total market capitalization of 391.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 77% of the market value of financial stocks.

In addition to the lifting of the ban on individual stocks in these two major industry segments, financial stocks such as PetroChina Capital, South China Futures, and Ruida Futures will also face lifting of the ban this year.

  From the perspective of the main types of financial stock lifting this year, 60% of the original banned stocks of the restricted stocks were sold.For a long time, the first lifting of the ban on stocks has usually had an impact on prolonging the impact, especially the partial increase before the lifting of the ban penetrates individual stocks. After a large proportion of lifting the ban, the pressure on the pressure is even greater.

  For example, PICC, an insurance stock, entered the A-share market on November 16, 2018. At the beginning of its listing, PICC received 5 daily limit boards, and then went through a round of adjustments.

In November 2019, the PICC entered a period of lifting the ban, which continued to fall for 9 consecutive days and gradually decreased by 18.

62%.

As of January 6, PICC closed at 7.

68 yuan / share.

  For another example, on January 3, 2020, Zijin Bank’s 22.

07 billion shares were lifted, accounting for 60% of the total share capital.

30%, accounting for 85% of outstanding shares.

77%, the lifting of the ban involved 387 shareholders.

With the continued decline after the lifting of the ban, the closing of January 6th, Zijin Bank is expected to close at 5.

38 yuan, compared with November last year.

The high of 7 yuan dropped by half.

  It is worth mentioning that the scale of shareholder reductions does not exactly correspond to the peak of lifting the ban, which means that reductions and liftings do not necessarily occur simultaneously, so lifting the bans does not necessarily lead to large-scale reductions.

  China Merchants Securities pointed out that the pressure to reduce holdings caused by the lifting of the ban is more likely to be concentrated on some stocks, the proportion of equity pledges is high, and shareholders of companies with poor cash flow have pressure to reduce holdings; equity investment institutions, shareholders who have more income from lifting the ban will have more incentive to reduce their holdings.
However, considering that the beginning of the year is a period for the layout of some medium and long-term institutional investors, the entry of incremental funds can hedge the reduction in holdings brought by the lifting of the ban to a certain extent, so there is no excessive occupation in the total.

  Similarly, Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said that the initial ban and the issuance of restricted shares for sale are to increase the supply of stocks in the market, which will impact the liquidity of the market in the short term, but at the same time, the market situation still needs to be analyzed in detail.
If the restricted stocks are lifted, the market sentiment is high, and investors are optimistic about the stocks lifted, the capital continues to flow in and is expected to continue to rise.

In general, due to the reduction in the number of bans on the issuance of restricted shares, the impact on individual stock prices is relatively obvious.