HiSec (002653): Performance slightly exceeds market expectation, ushering in 2020 harvest of innovative drugs

HiSec (002653): Performance slightly exceeds market expectation, ushering in 2020 harvest of innovative drugs

Event: On the evening of January 13, the company issued a 2019 annual performance forecast.

The company is expected to achieve net profit in 20195.

00-5.

20 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.

05% -56.

05%; The increase in performance was mainly due to the continuous and steady growth in operating income and sales volume during the period.

Opinion: The company’s performance is slightly better than market expectations. Based on the median performance forecast, the company’s Q4 net profit is about 1.
.

24 ppm, a reduction of zero government subsidies received in the fourth quarter.

Net profit after 97 ppm (Industrial Development Support Fund allocated by Nanshan, Tibet) is zero.

27 ppm, if considering the 4th quarter distribution incentive expenses, the profit and loss impact of investment in Haibao Life, etc., the company’s actual operating profit contribution in the 4th quarter is expected to achieve a substantial increase over the same period last year.

Large products 苏州桑拿网 continued to increase in volume, and marketing capabilities were rapidly improved. High performance growth in 2020 is expected.

With reference to IQIVA data, we expect that the company’s exclusive product dorastron will achieve approximately 100% terminal sales growth in 2019, while the amino acid series and three-cavity bags and various oral preparations will also achieve high growth.

By 2020, the overall revenue growth rate is expected to be more than 25%. At the same time, the company’s self-employment ratio is continuing to increase, and sales costs have steadily decreased. The company’s profit growth rate in 2020 is still expected to be in revenue growth.

The blockbuster innovative drug cyclopofen is expected to be approved in 2020H1, and the domestic market has 3 billion market potential.

Cyclopentin independently developed by the company is the me-better and substitute of the most classic narcotic propofol. Cyclopofen is highly effective and safer than propofol. It is expected to cover all volume indications and adapt to aging microscopy.The disease has been reported to produce and has obtained the priority review qualification. The CDE was officially approved before the end point of the largest indication for acute attack (the lunar calendar). This indication plan is to directly implement phase 3 clinical trials in the United States in 2020, which is expected to become an innovative drug with world competitiveness;With reference to the consumption of propofol, at a penetration rate of 25%, we expect it to have a market potential of 3 billion in China.

The company’s innovative drug research and development pipeline is rich, and the long-term development space is broad.

The company’s innovative drugs are characterized by endogenous research and development. By the beginning of 2020, the company’s innovative drug pipeline is expected to have 6 molecules in clinical stage, including 2 phase III and 1 phase II. It is expected that the company will declare 2-3 IND every year in the future.At the same time, 1-2 new drugs (indications) have been approved, and the road to transforming innovative drugs has become wider.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company in 2019-2021 will be 5, respectively.

1.1 billion, 6.

4.6 billion, 8.

4.8 billion, an increase of 53 each year.

3%, 26.

4% and 31.

3%; we estimate the company’s segment by business, and the DCF estimate for innovative drugs is 148.

6 trillion, generic drugs 163-195 trillion.

In summary, we give the company an overall market value of 310-342 trillion in 2020, corresponding to a target range of 28.

6-31.

5 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risk alert events: the risk of price reduction in drug procurement, and the progress of the development of innovative drugs gradually exceeds expected risks.